Küresel finans krizinin ülke içindeki ve ülkelerarası etkileri

This study aims to construct a thorough analysis of the latest global financial crisis of 2008. Study approaches the subject starting from the fundamentals of financial crisis and its contagion. Focusing European economies, namely Germany, France, Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and United Kingdom; it is aimed to construct a comprehensive and comparative analysis especially for the intercountry contagion of the turmoil. Following the theoretical and informative chapters regarding the crisis and contagion concepts as well as the macroeconomic and financial performances of the seven selected countries (France, Germany, United Kingdom, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy) at the onset of the crisis; the thesis is followed by three empirical studies. Firstly, the existence of contagion from the United States to Europe has been analyzed and verified with the application of DCC-GARCH methodology. Dynamic conditional correlations have been constructed among the economies which have shown significant increases in the post-crisis period and approved a possible contagion. Subsequent to the analysis of contagion, global macroeconomic variables which might have effects on those dynamic correlations have been tested by quantile regression. Four global conditional variables have been selected as volatility index, TED spread, gold price and oil price. Volatility index results which were negatively explaining the dynamic conditional correlations reflected the slow recovery of European economies after crisis, especially for Portugal and Greece. The fluctuations in these markets were based on their own fundamental risks. Gold prices tend to influence the correlations positively in pre-crisis, while the influence was negative in the post-crisis period. The increase in gold prices attracted investors to diversify their portfolios. Since the relationship between the gold prices and correlations is affected negatively after the crisis, increases in gold prices cause the markets (US and Europeans) to deviate from each other. Oil price results have shown a positive effect on the correlations after the crisis. The countries in the analysis are developed European economies which watch oil prices closely since it is an essential input for their production processes. Therefore, post-crisis positive effect of oil prices on correlations demonstrates European economies' dependency to oil because of their economic characteristics. Lastly, the macroeconomic policies of European and American Central Banks have been investigated in order to evaluate the efficiency of asset purchase policies on the European economies' macroeconomic and financial indicators such as GDP growth, unemployment, interest rate and stock markets. The results indicated that European Central Bank asset purchases have shown insignificant results on the selected indicators while the FED's asset purchases had more sound effect on the European countries' macro and financial variables. However, the effects of the policies were not immediate and sounded. The relatively late and weak reaction of ECB have been affective in this progress. Eventually European economies has struggled with a debt spiral which they could not manage and lead the economies enter a new turmoil, European Debt Crisis.