Makro ekeonomik değişkenlerin menkul kıymet borsası endekslerine etkisi: BİST-100 örneği

Each individual's investment orientation is different from the past to the present. While some investors turn to real estate, which we call the risk-free group, some investors turn to risk-bearing tools. The most important of these groups is stocks. Although it contains risks, it is preferred by almost everyone. The popularity of this much has created the securities exchanges. The mentioned exchanges are available in every country and open to people in different ways. The Istanbul stock exchange (Borsa Istanbul) stood in Istanbul in Turkey. The most well-known index of the mentioned stock exchange is the BIST-100 index, and many macroeconomic variables affect the returns of this index. In this context, this study aims is to determine the impacts of macroeconomic variables on the BIST-100 index. The variables used in this study are the exchange rate of TL / USD and TL / Euro, inflation rate, interest rate, money supply, gold price, and geopolitical risk. The data is analyzed by using the VAR model based on monthly data between 01.07.2014 and 01.01.2021. According to the Granger causality test results, there is causality from BIST-100 index to the exchange rate of USD and from money supply to BIST-100 index. On the other hand, the impulse response test also provides a negative bidirectional relationship between the BIST-100 index and the exchange rate of TL/USD. Therefore, different relations between the BIST-100 index and the variables have been determined. Keywords: BIST-100 Index, VA