Para politikası aktarım mekanizmaları ve enflasyon: Türkiye örneği

The aim of this study is to test the relationship between the monetary policy transmission mechanisms and the sectoral inflation in Turkey. The economic sectors of this study were defined according to the high-level aggregation (A10) of the NACE REV2. This study has examined both short and long terms relationships using quarterly time series data of the period between 2008 and 2021. The study applied the ARDL cointegration approach to develop an ECM model that will help analysing the short and long run dynamics of such relationships. The empirical results suggest that the exchange rate channel has the strongest effect on inflation in both short and long terms; whereas the credit and the interest rate channels were found to have a moderate and weak effects, respectively. The exchange rate has a negative effect on inflation in both short and long term, while the credit channel has a mixed effect in the long term (positive in some sectors and negative in others) and a negative one in the short term. The interest rate channel was found to be ineffective in the long term and to have a positive effect in the short term. Moreover, short term shocks are found to persist for long periods (up to 32 quarters) in some sectors; while their effects are temporary (return to equilibrium within 4 quarters) in others.