The role of agricultural development in the evolution of foreign trade in agricultural commodities in Iraq for the period 1990-2020

The study aimed to know the most important factors affecting the agricultural domestic product, which is an indicator for measuring agricultural development in Iraq during the period 1990-2020. Furthermore the impact of the values of agricultural output on the nutritional gap, self-sufficiency, agricultural exports, agricultural imports, and total agricultural foreign trade. Descriptive and quantitative methods were used to analyze the results of the study. The results of the descriptive analysis showed the existence of a large group of obstacles and intertwined and overlapping problems represented in the land problems such as salinity and desertification, water problems and environmental pollution, decrease in investments in the agricultural sector, the state's cessation of support for this sector, a significant rise in the prices of agricultural production inputs, and a decrease in the use of agricultural technology, furthermore the policy of dumping the Iraqi market with imported agricultural commodities. All of these obstacles and problems had a negative impact on the agricultural sector, which was represented in the decline in agricultural production, the emergence of a nutritional gap, and the lack of self-sufficiency in wheat and rice crops (food deficit). The study showed that the nutritional gap of strategic crops in Iraq for the period 1990-2020 was caused by a shortfall in the production of strategic crops. The nutritional gap revealed the failure of the agricultural policies that were adopted to raise production growth rates for strategic crops and reduce dependence on foreign markets. The nutritional gap also revealed that the food security of the Iraqi citizen is threatened and dependent on global markets. As for the quantitative analysis method, which is based on econometric methods, the effect of economic variables (agricultural investment values, agricultural labor force, inflation rate, agricultural loans, cultivated area, and foreign exchange rate) on agricultural output values (as a first stage), and the effect of the values of agricultural output on the values of agricultural exports (as a second stage) and the effect of the values of agricultural output on the values of agricultural imports (as a third stage) and the effect of the values of agricultural output on the values of total agricultural foreign trade (as a fourth stage). The statistical program (Eviews 10) was relied on to measure and interpret the results. The results of the standard analysis showed the significance of each of the agricultural investment values, the inflation rate, and the cultivated area in influencing the values of agricultural output, moreover the significance of the impact of agricultural output values on agricultural export values, agricultural imports values, and agricultural foreign trade values.