Türkiye ekonomisinde ihracatın ithalata bağımlılığı: Zaman serisi analizi

Various countries have implemented different strategies for providing economic growth. The most known of these are export-led and import-led growth theory. In this regard, foreign trade play an important role. However, analyses that neglect only import or consider only export may result in false findings in the analysis of the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth. For example, when export expands with high import growth, import may be crucial for economic growth. So, both must be evaluated together. Therefore, it is important to achieve more accurate findings and give appropriate policy suggestion. This study aims to indicate the availability the "import dependency of export" for Turkey's economy by investigating the causal relationship between export, import, economic growth and sub-group of import by using quarterly data for the period between the years 1980 and 2018. For this purpose, Vector Autoregression Model, Vector Error Correction Model, Johansen Cointegration Model, Granger Causality Test, Impulse-Response Function and Variance Decomposition Analysis were applied. According to empirical results, there is unidirectional causality relationship from import to export, which is import dependency of export, and there is unidirectional causal relationship from economic growth to import, which is called growth-led import. Moreover, it was found that there is bidirectional causal relation between import and intermediate goods import, and there is unidirectional causal relation from consumption goods import to import, capital goods import, and to intermediate goods import, from export to consumption goods import, from economic growth to consumption goods import, and to intermediate goods import, from intermediate and capital goods import to export. Keywords: Import dependency of export, Dependence, Foreign trade, Turkish Economy, Causality.