Factors that affect housing demand in Turkey

In this study, the factors that affect the demand direction of the housing sector in Turkey were investigated with time series data for the periods 2013:1-2021:6. The data which contained in this macro-dimensional study are house sales, interest rate, house maintenance and repair price index, unemployment rate, house price index, consumer price index and consumer confidence index. As an econometric method, Granger causality test, impulse-response analysis, variance decomposition analysis and ARDL analysis were applied in the study. According to the results of the analysis, it is observed that there is a uni-directional causality relationship from the house price index, interest rate and unemployment rate to house sales. Impulse response analysis shows that a one standard deviation shock to the housing price index, interest rate, unemployment rate and consumer confidence index, first decrease house sales and then increased. Similarly, when a shock with one standard deviation is given to the consumer price index and the housing maintenance and repair price index, house sales react in an increasing direction. On the other hand, when the variance decomposition analysis results are evaluated in general, it is seen that the majority of the changes in housing sales are explained by itself, and then by the housing price index, unemployment rate, interest rate, consumer price index, consumer confidence index housing maintenance, and repair price index. The ARDL bounding test demonstrate that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables. In the long run, it can be said that the rise in the interest rate, unemployment rate and consumer confidence index variables has reduced housing sales, as well as the increase in the housing maintenance and repair price index and the consumer price index has increased housing sales. Keywords: Housing Demand, Granger Causality Test, Impulse-Response Analysis, Variance Decomposition Analysis, ARDL Analysis