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Attitude towards incentives for blood donation in Europe
Obviously there are many factors which motivate blood donors during the donation process. Materials incentives can be a policy tool for increasing blood donor recruitment. To shed more light on factors that affect blood donation, we analyze Euro-barometer survey (82.2) which conducted in October 2014 with 27868 individuals in EU counties. This thesis demonstrates how selected material incentives especially monetary incentives are perceived generally among European individuals. Thus, we examine monetary incentives' encouragement, discouragement or make no difference towards blood donation within demographic groups (Gender, education, and marital status), social economics variables (occupation, community and household), wealth index (ownership durables), GDP per capita and blood donation sites (Countries). We find that the rate of individuals who don't accept cash payment for blood donation in 28 EU countries is above 15%, except individuals who located in Czech Republic, Latvia and Romania. For people who have higher scores on wealth index are less likely to accept cash incentives for blood donation. In addition GDP per capita of each country of EU is statistically significant determinant of attitude towards blood donation. That is, in high GDP per capita countries, potential donors' interest in monetary incentives falls. Keywords: Monetary incentives, altruism, blood donation
Optimal auditing for tax evasion
In tax evasion literature, many studies take tax rate, penalty rate, and audit rate exogeneously. The main aim of this study is to endogenise the audit rate and differentiate utility function for taxpayers according to their risk parameters. Tax payers decide whether or not to evade depending on tax rate, penalty rate, and audit rate imposed by the government and their own risk behavior, from there the rate of evaders is found. And by using this rate, the audit rate that maximizes the tax revenue function is found. Our results show that, in some cases while the highest audit rate provides the maximum tax rate, in other cases lower audit rate maximizes the tax revenue depending on the level of tax rate and penalty rate.
Does social context impact the well-being consequences of unemployment?
This thesis aims to examine the role of the social context on the psychosocial cost of unemployment in Turkey by using the Life Satisfaction Survey in 2013. Previous studies find that increasing unemployment in one's social context weakens the work norms and alleviates the burden of unemployment on individuals. In this study, we define four measurements for contextual unemployment: the province-level unemployment rates, the average percentage of unemployed in one's age & education group, and the number of unemployed in one's household. We apply multilevel regression analysis and ordered probit techniques. The results show that contextual unemployment soothes the negative impact of unemployment on the unemployed. The second major finding is that the negative impact of personal unemployment is diminished, the more unemployment is prevalent at the household level. Besides, the social norm hypothesis works especially for unemployed females in Turkey.
The impact of being public on firm performance during COVID-19: A quasi-experimental study for Turkiye
COVID-19, being an unprecedented shock in our recent history, was beyond a virus that affected all aspects of life including economics, commerce and trade and in particular dynamics of the managerial operations of firms in the real sector of the economy. In this study, impact of being public on firm performance has been analyzed, during the Pandemic period in Turkiye. Firm performance is measured under 4 main categories: liquidity, profitability, leverage, and efficiency. In order to analyze impact of a being public firm, propensity score matching (PSM) method with Probit specification is utilized to construct sample of a matching group among the firms that are not publicly listed (private firms). Afterwards, difference-in-differences (DID) regressions are employed to analyze the net causal impact on different measures of performance, to see the relative performance of the publicly listed firms. It has been found that (i), public firms' net liquidity position was better with regard to matched private firms during covid-19 and this impact is observed to be greater for SMEs and non-manufacturing firms. (ii) From the profitability perspective, although the impact was not significant in terms of return on assets, it was strongly positive for the net profit margin. (iii) Being public has a negative net effect on financial leverage of firms in comparison to the private firms during the pandemic. (iv) Regarding the efficiency, it is revealed that public firms performed better than matched private firms amidst the pandemic period. (v) As a result of this study, evidence was found that being a public firm has a strong and positive net impact on the overall financial performance of SMEs during the COVID-19 period and this impact was not significant for large firms. Thus, this study revealed that public firms' performances are significantly better than the matched non-listed firms amidst the pandemic years. The important finding of this study for policymakers is that encouraging SMEs to go public will make the companies' performance, and therefore the economy, more resilient to shocks such as COVID-19. Keywords: Applied Econometrics, COVID-19, Quasi-Experimental Design, Corporate Finance
Sectoral technical efficiency and its determinants in Turkish manufacturing: Evidence from a stochastic frontier model
This thesis investigates the determinants of profitability-based efficiency among Turkish two-digit manufacturing industries using a Stochastic Frontier Model (SFM) with inefficiency effects for the period 2019–2023. Motivated by the limitations of traditional production-based efficiency studies and the structural heterogeneity of Turkish manufacturing, the study employs Return on Assets (ROA) as the frontier output to capture financial performance across sectors with diverse technologies, cost structures, and product mixes. A stochastic profit frontier is estimated using liquidity, leverage, and inventory turnover as core determinants of profitability, while inefficiency is modeled as a function of fixed-asset structure, interest-coverage capacity, R&D intensity, operating expenses, and the COVID-19 pandemic period. The empirical results show that liquidity and inventory turnover significantly enhance profitability, whereas high leverage reduces sectors' ability to reach the profit frontier. Inefficiency effects indicate that stronger equity-backed capital structures, higher debt-servicing capacity, and greater R&D investment reduce inefficiency, while high operating expenses increases it. The pandemic dummy confirms substantial efficiency losses during COVID-19. Variance parameters reveal that approximately 39 percent of profitability variation stems from structural inefficiency rather than random shocks, validating the use of a stochastic frontier framework. Technical efficiency scores demonstrate a clear hierarchy: high-technology industries, including electronics, motor vehicles, and pharmaceuticals, operate near the frontier, while traditional industries such as textiles, wood products, and apparel exhibit persistent inefficiency. Pandemic-period comparisons reveal intensified disparities between advanced and low-technology sectors. Overall, the thesis provides one of the first profitability-based frontier assessments of Turkish manufacturing and highlights the critical roles of financial resilience, innovation capacity, and cost-structure modernization in strengthening sectoral efficiency and competitiveness.
Makro ekonomik değişkenlerle j eğrisi hipotezi' nin sınanması: Panel veri analizi
Ekonomilerinin büyüme ve kalkınmalarında etkili olan faktörlerden biri dış ticarettir. Küresel dünyada ekonomiler dış ticaretlerini geliştirmek için mallarının katma değerlerini yükselterek daha fazla gelir elde etmeyi amaçlamaktadırlar. Dış ticaretin ülke ekonomisine olumlu yansıması için döviz kuru rejimlerine dikkat edilmesi gerekmektedir. Döviz kurlarının ticaret dengesi üzerinde kısa ve uzun dönem etkileri tam olarak anlaşılamamıştır. Bu nedenle ülke parasının değerindeki değişmelerin ülkenin dış ticaret dengesine nasıl bir etki yarattığı merak konusu olmaktadır. Devalüasyonun ticaret dengesini pozitif yönde etkilemesi için hangi şartların sağlanması gerektiği konusunda 2 teorik bakış açısından söz edilmektedir. İlk bakış açısı Bickerdike (1920), Robinson(1947) ve Metzler(1948)'de yaptıkları çalışmalardan sonra BRM olarak adlandırılan model, ikinci bakış açısı ise Marshall-Lerner koşuludur. Marshall-Lerner koşulu ihracat ve ithalat esnekliklerini hesaplamaya dâhil ederek mutlak değer olarak toplamlarının birden büyük olduğu durumda devalüasyonun dış ticaret dengesini olumlu etkileyeceğini ifade etmektedir. Bu çalışmada Seçilmiş G-20 ülkeleri ile 1992-2020 arası dönemde Marshall-Lerner koşulu dikkate alınarak J eğrisi etkisinin geçerliliği sınanmıştır. Çalışmada panel veri analizinden yararlanılmıştır. Bu bağlamda CADF birim kök testi, eş bütünleşme testi, PDOLS tahmincisi ve Granger nedensellik testi kullanılarak ilişki olup olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Dış ticaret, J eğrisi, Marshall-Lerner Koşulu, Panel Veri Analizi
Interstate labor market connectedness in the United States
This paper investigates the labor market connectedness across the US states. We apply the Diebold-Yilmaz Connectedness Index (DYCI) methodology to weekly initial unemployment claims to obtain connectedness measures across 51 states between 1989 to 2021. The system-wide connectedness increases during the US recessions since 1990. We also show that changes in the monetary policy stance affects the regional unemployment levels and their connectedness across states. A significant section of the thesis is devoted to analyzing the state-level initial unemployment claims and their connectedness across states during the COVID-19 recession. We show that in addition to the number of new COVID-19 cases, state-level government policy stringency and community mobility patterns play a critical role in explaining the unemployment dynamics during the COVID-19 recession. The same factors defined in relative terms over the pairs of states as well as distance and the value of shipments across states also explain the transmission of unemployment shocks across states during the COVID-19 recession.
Exploiting trading volume for volatility forecasting
In this paper, we propose a novel GARCH specification which embraces traded volume in a statistically coherent and computationally efficient way. To capture the dependence between traded volume and asset return volatility, the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis (MDH) is used. We model the time evolution of the latent variable(return variance) ,which drives the bivariate relation in MDH, in the spirit of Generalized Autoregressive Score modelling technique. The resulting volume enhanced GARCH model has quite parsimonious yet flexible structure. Since the peculiar form of score driven models, the likelihood can be obtained in closed form and hence estimation procedure is computationally inexpensive. In an empirical application with IBM, PG and MSFT stock data, we estimate our novel model with its 3 variants. Moreover, standard GARCH models from the literature are considered for comparison. Our results highlight the superiority of volume enhanced models both in-sample estimates and out-of-sample predictions among competing models. Particularly, when we consider returns as t distributed, the gain from traded volume becomes pronounced in out-of-sample prediction study.
Effects of non-compete agreements on innovation and teamwork
This thesis investigates the effects of non-compete agreements on teamwork and innovation. I argue that patents convey information about the productivity of inventors to the labor market. Therefore, firms have an incentive to manipulate the productivity signal revealed by patents to mitigate competition over their inventors. In particular, the firms adjust the size of teams of inventors strategically, often forming larger teams than what is efficient, before applying for a patent. Since signing non-compete agreements with inventors is an alternative way to address competition for current employees, the feasibility of such contractual clauses reduces the firms' incentives to manipulate team size. In the empirical analysis, I investigate the extent to which my prediction is consistent with the data. Specifically, I use patents issued to inventors by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) and the reversal of a Michigan law that prevents the enforceability of non-compete agreements in 1985 to employ a difference-in-differences estimation. My results are consistent with the idea that innovative firms reduce their team size when non-compete agreements are feasible.
Optimal posted price mechanism vs auction under common value environment
This paper investigates the revenue maximizing mechanisms in the simple common value environment. We analyzed optimal posted price mechanism under the discrete common value environment in which bidders get some noisy signals about the value of the object and seller sets a fixed posted price but she determines the selling probabilities of the good conditional on the signals that bidders state. In this mechanism, whenever seller decides to sell the good she picks a bidder randomly and sells to him. By doing so we aimed to eliminate so-called winner's curse and to increase revenue for the seller under this common value environment. Moreover, under the same environment we also calculated the expected revenue of the second-price auction mechanism. After finding optimal posted price mechanism, we compared the expected revenues of these two mechanisms. Finally, we offered an alternative posted-price mechanism for easy comparison of auction and posted price mechanism when number of bidders tends to infinity.
Peer effects of dismissed German scholars in Turkish academia
This thesis investigates whether the arrival of international and more productive scientists can increase the productivity of local scientists in the context of a developing country. Specifically, the thesis examines the effects of German scientists, who escaped from Nazi Germany and resided in Turkey, on the productivity of Turkish scientists in the 1933-1945 period. The main estimates indicate that, holding the quality of German scholars constant, the number of German scholars in a department had a positive and statistically significant effect on the number of annual scientific publications of a Turkish scientist in that department. The findings also suggest that if local scientists are familiar with recent international research practices and have better language skills, they might benefit more from the interactions with international scientists in their departments.
Essays on repeated principal-agent interaction
In a repeated interaction, one tries to maximize his/her current payoffs and consider the decision's future implications. Reputation concerns arise when there is incomplete information regarding the references of the counterparts. I theoretically and experimentally analyze the finitely repeated interaction between an agent and a principal. The principal can be thought of as a state official who holds either a one-period or a long-term project. The agent is a private firm that holds the necessary information for the project. The principal holds a project which yields a payoff depending on the realized state of the world. He is not informed about the state of the world and hires an informed agent to delegate the authority. The agent may be a good type who shares the same preferences with the principal. Moreover, there is a positive probability that the agent may be a "bad type" who has misaligned preferences with the principal. The principal does not know the agent's type but knows the prior probability that the agent is a bad type. The agent is a long-term player, and the principal is either a short-term or a long-term player. In the short-term-principal setup, the long-term agent meets a new principal in each period of the interaction. If the principal is also a long-term player, then the agent and principal meet once and interact as long as the principal continues to hire the agent. In both setups, the principal observes the past choices of the agent when making the hiring decision. Hence, both types of agents have a long-term incentive to keep a high reputation level in addition to the short-term incentive to play the stage-game optimal action. The good agent wants to separate from the bad agent, whereas the bad agent wants to mimic the good type. This thesis includes three chapters. The first chapter defines a benchmark model. The short-term principal does not hire the agent in the initial periods where there are reputation incentives. The more periods are left to be played, the more the agent's reputation incentives. Hence, the agent tends to play the action that will increase her reputation level even if that action is not optimal in the stage game. The principal expects a negative payoff in such periods. The reputation incentives lead to surplus loss as the principal does not hire the agent in such periods. Hence, the "bad reputation" behavior is observed [Ely and Valimaki, 2003]. When the principal is also a long-term player, the harmful effect of reputation incentives can be avoided. The long-term principal hires the agent in periods with reputation concerns. He can compensate for the losses of reputation-building behavior in the future periods. Moreover, the long-term principal hires the agent for lower reputation levels. Hence, it is seen that a long-term interaction between the agent and the principal decreases the harmful effects of reputation-building behavior and improves equilibrium payoffs . In the second chapter, I introduce endogenous stakes. Either the agent or the principal sets the allocation of the relative stakes. The agent prefers to start the career path with larger stakes, decreasing the stakes gradually. By starting large, the (good) agent creates an environment where future interaction becomes less valuable. Hence the incentive to take the right action in the current period prevails over reputation concerns. On the other hand, the principal allocates the stakes so that the interaction starts small. By doing so, the principal benefits from the reputation concerns of the agent. The principal updates his belief on the agent through interaction - stakes increase as the agent's reputation rises. Likewise, the social planner - whose objective is to maximize social welfare - prefers to start the interaction small. The findings highlight the optimal design of a career path under different conditions. The third chapter theoretically and experimentally analyzes a slightly different repeated principal-agent game with varying relative stakes. I focus on the setup where there is a high probability that the principal and the agent have misaligned preferences (the agent is the bad type with sufficiently high probability). Repeated play becomes valuable in such a setting by improving the equilibrium payoff of the principal. The agent has reputation incentives that motivate her to take action matching the true state in the initial periods rather than maximize her period payoff. As Morris [2001] calls, the "discipline effect" of the reputation incentives benefits the principal. We show it is optimal for the principal to start the interaction small and increase the stakes gradually. The agent's reputation incentives are managed so that the reputation evolves slowly. I test these predictions in four treatments via online experiments. Each period receives an equal stake in the first treatment. The interaction starts small in the other three treatments, and the stakes increase at different speeds. We show that the smaller the interaction starts, the higher the reputation incentives of the agent. More importantly, I show that the principal earns a higher payoff in starting-small (gradualism) treatments than the equal-stakes treatment. I contribute to the literature on gradualism by showing that it is a valuable tool for improving equilibrium payoffs in the principal-agent framework with asymmetric information.
The effect of female empowerment on long-term government spending
Female empowerment is a crucial phenomenon taken seriously by many countries. Increased labor force participation, educational attainment and political representation are all the ways that can be used to empower women and make their voices, needs, concerns and demands heard. The importance can be better understood when the differing preferences of men and women are discussed. Women tend to spend the majority of each additional income obtained for their family, the education and health of their children compared to men. Additionally, women are more patient and altruistic. In the light of these pieces of information, it can be said that they would favor a larger share of government spending to be dedicated to longer-term investments that can be considered as altruistic, such as health, education, and environmental protection areas. In this study, it is hypothesized that increased female labor participation share, educational attainment and political representation are correlated with the increased share of government spending on education and health in GDP. A panel of 38 OECD countries is examined and it is revealed that the predicted correlation exists most of the time. However, the observed associations are driven by the effect of time series and they are not as strongly as guided by the cross-country differences since the variation between the countries is too high to be the driving force behind the relationships revealed here.
An essay on common and private value actions and essays on the effect of non-performing loans on lending, sectoral credit composition and banking sector market concentration
In the first part, we study a k +1st price auction model where each bidder is either a common value bidder or a private value bidder with a given probability. We show that as opposed to pure common value auctions, there has to be pooling in any equilibrium under some parametric restrictions depending on the number of goods, distribution of signals and probability of a bidder belonging to either type. We find a large auction equilibrium in which common value bidders pool at the bottom of the signal space. The price in equilibrium does not converge the true value of the object; however, it does reflect the state of the world. We also provide some conditions for a pooling equilibrium in large and small auctions with common and private value bidders. In the second part, we study the interaction of non-performing loans (NPL) and credit growth. The period of tightening in monetary and financial conditions around the globe following the COVID-19 pandemic threatens the asset quality of banks worldwide. An analysis of the feedback e↵ects between non-performing loans and credit growth is therefore important for economic growth projections and for the financial stability of banking system. This study analyzes the impact of changes in bank asset quality on lending, market concentration and economic sector loan distribution in Turkey by implementing panel VAR on bank level and economic sector level data. In the first part, we show that rise in the NPL ratio of banks decreases the bank loans. We distinguish the response of public and private banks to NPL rise before and after 2016. We also examine the role of bank characteristics, such as size, capital and liquidity structure to demonstrate how banks react di↵erently to NPL shocks with respect to these characteristics. Moreover, we provide a panel quantile estimation of the e↵ect of NPL in di↵erent quantiles of bank loan distribution and show that tightening in bank lending due to NPL shocks is more pronounced at the higher quantiles of loan distribution. Second, we work on panel data of economic sectors to show that when NPL ratio of a sector increases, share of outstanding loans of the sector in total bank loans shrinks. We find that the direction, magnitude and duration of the response of loans to NPL shock is consistent with bank-level analysis, with medium to long-term loans the main driver of the response. Third, we demonstrate using classical VAR that an exogenous rise in the NPL ratio increases the market concentration in the banking sector, with concentration being driven by public banks. Sectoral level analysis of NPL feedback mechanism, quantile regression approach to interaction of NPL with lending and interaction of NPL with banking sector concentration indices are novel results with possible policy implications.
Disagreement and information acquisition with multiple experts
I examine a persuasion game between a decision maker and two advisers. The decision-making is centralized, and each adviser exerts costly effort to acquire information, which is publicly observed if generated. Crucially, the players have the same preferences but differing priors. The latter assumption implies that even if the players observe the same information, their preferred actions differ, i.e., they have differences of opinion about the optimal action. I show that each advisor has free-riding incentives, so that their effort choices are strategic substitutes. As a result, an advisor's effort choice is increasing in the degree of his own differences of opinion with the decision maker, but it is decreasing in that of the other advisor. This results in a trade-off for the decision maker when choosing advisers. By increasing her differences of opinion with an adviser, the decision maker elicits higher effort from one advisor but lower effort from the other one. Nevertheless, I show that the decision maker is better off by choosing two advisers with extreme differences of opinion instead of choosing two like-minded advisers.
The role of credit on business cycles
This study investigates whether there is a direct and meaningful effect of credit-related variables on business cycles in terms of magnitude and duration, or not. The research also focuses on the possibility of structural changes caused by the coronavirus pandemic through the credit channel, compared to the pre-pandemic era. For these purposes, real GDP and total credit to private non-financial sector datasets that belong to 31 selected OECD countries were employed as input. The main model used on this study is hierarchical Markov mixture model with Bayesian simulation. To observe possible effects of credit-related variables on business cycles, time-varying transition probabilities were enabled in emphasized model by means of probit model. For the pre-pandemic era, credit-to-GDP ratio tends to decrease the magnitude of cycle whatever the current phase is. Another finding states that annual real credit growth leads to an increase in the magnitude of cycle for both phases during pre-pandemic periods. It can be said that there exists evidence for several effects of credit-related variables on business cycles even though some of them seem to be disappeared with the pandemic era.
International students and political preferences
This thesis explores the political impact of international students in the United States in presidential and Senate elections using county-level data from 2000 to 2020. To capture the causality, this thesis uses the Instrumental Variable (IV) approach and exploits the past distribution of international students across U.S. counties by countries of origin as a driver of future migration flows. The primary contribution of this thesis is to demonstrate that an increase in international students decreases the vote share of the Republican Party. Potential underlying mechanisms for this negative relationship are analyzed by referring to the political discourses about international students. The findings also suggest that the political impact of international students is heterogeneous across counties depending on the predominance of Republican voters, and is not contingent upon the academic level.
Essays on public goods and social learning
This dissertation consists of three independent chapters. The first chapter is co-authored with Professor Doctor Mehmet Yiğit Gürdal and Professor Doctor Özgür Gürerk. The second chapter is co-authored with Professor Doctor Mehmet Yiğit Gürdal and Associate Professor Doctor Orhan Torul. The third chapter is solo-authored. The first chapter investigates the impact of culture on the acceptance and prevalence of sanctioning institutions, and report the results of controlled lab experiments in two countries with substantial cultural differences: Germany and Turkey. We find, if a sanctioning institution is one of two alternatives that individuals can freely choose in an endogenous setting, then it is the clear winner against a non-sanctioning institution, both in Germany and Turkey. Though there are some differences in initial institutional preferences and contributions in both countries, the dynamics of institution choice, the evolution of contributions and sanctioning behavior are remarkably similar. Our results extend the findings of a previous study by Herrmann et al. [2008] that finds less cooperative behaviors in some countries (among them Turkey) if the sanctioning institutions are exogenous. We show that in one of those countries, Turkey, in an endogenous setting, sanctioning institutions beneficial to societies are adapted and prevail. The second chapter examines the cooperation and punishment in a public goods game in Istanbul. Unlike prior within-subject designs, we implement a between-subject design with separate no-punishment and punishment conditions. This approach reveals that punishment significantly increases contributions, demonstrating the detrimental effect of prior experience without sanctions. We highlight two critical factors - heterogeneous initial contributions across groups and estimated contribution updating rules based on received sanctions. An agent-based model verifies that their interaction produces strong persistence. Analyzing related data shows similar patterns emerge in comparable cities, suggesting our findings likely generalize if employing a between-subject design. We conclude that overlooking within-group heterogeneity biases cross-society comparisons and subsequent policy implications. The third chapter analyzes how the structure of the network and the relevancy of the object of interest affects the decisions of the subjects in a social learning experiment. In their most classical form, social learning experiments include a series of subjects lined up in a linear network. In such a design, each subject receives a private signal to predict the state of the world sequentially. The novelty of the chapter stems from its circular line-up design such that the first mover has to make two decisions. Initially, the first mover makes a decision based on her own private signal and another party subsequently makes a decision. Next, the first mover observes the decision made by the other party in its group and updates its prediction. We ask subjects to predict a randomly chosen target number and find that when the predicted item holds no self relevance for any players in the network, we lack sufficient evidence to suggest that the structure of the line-up influences outcomes. We also ask subjects to predict their own and another party's rank in a Raven Progressive Matrices test [Raven et al., 2003]. When the predicted item holds self-relevance for at least one party in the network, we observe a bias in predictions. In particular, the initial assessment of the subjects reveals that there is an overconfidence with respect to their performance in the test. Even though the bias of the predictions decreases compared to their initial beliefs after receiving an information about their rank, they still overestimate their rank. While subjects overestimate their rank more compared to other party's rank with respect to the earlier predictions, the difference between predicting one's own rank and another party's rank vanishes with later predictions.
Essays on labor market dynamics using the survey of income and living conditions
This dissertation is composed of two chapters on labor market dynamics based on the Survey of Income and Living Conditions (SILC) conducted by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT), the only publicly available household level panel data in Türkiye. SILC is collected across Europe under the supervision of European Statistical Institute (EUROSTAT). It offers a wide range of information on households and individual members, such as demographic characteristics, labor market status, income, asset ownership and living conditions by following households and household members for up to four years. EUROSTAT also supervises and coordinates a second effort that started earlier, known as Labor Force Surveys. Since the short panel component of the Household Labor Force Survey (HLFS), the main data source for labor market analysis in Türkiye, is not publicly available, T-SILC stands as a good candidate for studying labor market dynamics. Increased availability of panel data has exposed the vulnerability of surveys to non-response. Attrition, non-response after an initial response, and reverse attrition, response after an earlier non-response, are examples of missing data problems that loom large. The potential selectivity in exits and reentry can compromise inferences on dynamics that can be drawn from panel data. In Chapter 1, we examine household attrition patterns in T-SILC. Using data from the 2006-15 period, we document that 15.5 percent of households in the sample frame of T-SILC attritted, and an additional 4.15 percent reverse attritted before completing the rotation plan. TURKSTAT keeps track of non-response and uses weights that depend on age, gender, a narrow region/location designation and household size, to render the balanced panel representative. This approach would work if attrition is random conditional on the observables used in weighting. Yet we find that the likelihood of attrition conditional on observables is influenced by the labor market status of the household head. Households with heads who were unemployed (employed) in the period before attrition are more (less) likely to attrit compared to non-participants. The 19.6 percent combined attrition rate plus our finding that non-response has a statistically significant link with the labor market status of the household head exacerbates concerns that attrition in T-SILC can result in biased inferences while studying labor market dynamics. Other outcomes that can be affected are income inequality, poverty or deprivation status, and even living conditions of households that are intimately connected with the employment status of the household head. In Chapter 2, we investigate the suitability of T-SILC for studying labor market dynamics. Since Chapter 1 documents that the probability of attrition is non-ignorable with respect to the labor market status of the household head, attrition stands as a major threat. We side-track the attrition problem by using fresh subsamples which rely on first and second round information only. Although T-SILC has other shortcomings such as the gap between the reference periods of earnings and detailed labor market information, lack of public/private distinction and tenure information at the current job, it has the potential to shed light on labor market dynamics. Our assessment of the suitability of T-SILC for studying labor market dynamics is based on three connected investigations, which can be seen as the initial steps of separate substantive analyses. Using data from the 2006-17 period, firstly we study the annual transition patterns obtained from T-SILC over a broad set of labor market states: full-time (FT) and part-time (PT) formal and informal wage and salary employment (WS), non-WS employment, unemployment, and non-participation. Use of a rich state space enhances our ability to evaluate the adequacy of T-SILC in reflecting what goes on in the labor market. In light of our finding that non-response is a significant concern, we include attrition (reverse attrition) as a terminal (origin) state in our forward (backward) transition analyses. We show that state dependence is the dominant pattern, except for unemployed individuals. Nearly half of the FT informal WS workers change their status one year later. Annual transition rates to attrition are sizeable, particularly from unemployment. Secondly, we test whether the transition rates show the footprints of economic shocks that Türkiye experienced during the period under investigation: the 2008-09 global crisis and the extraordinary minimum wage hike that took place at the beginning of 2016. We compare our findings with those obtained from HLFS to see how well T-SILC fares. Test results reveal that transition rates estimated on T-SILC are sensitive to both shocks. Our rich state space designation allows us to evaluate the patterns and mechanisms that lead to changes in the transition rates. Lastly, we assess the suitability of T-SILC for studying labor market turnover via commonly used measures, including hiring, job separation, and job-to-job transition rates. Our results are broadly inline with the findings of studies that use HLFS. We conclude that T-SILC is a promising data source for deepening the investigations of the dynamics we explored.
Refugee resettlement: An impossibility result
Many countries hosting refugees has no particular method of settling them. In most of these countries there are cities with a large concentration of refugees. We propose two Pareto efficient and strategyproof mechanisms to resettle refugees among cities. These mechanisms always yield results where the number of refugees does not increase in over concentrated cities. Further, we compare the success of these mechanisms on reducing the concentration of refugees on particular cities. None of these mechanisms always performs better than the other one, their success depends on the problem we consider. This observation is persistent even under a restrictive assumption. Furthermore, we show that there is no Pareto efficient and strategyproof mechanism that always performs weakly better than both of the mechanisms we offer. For a mechanism, minimizing the concentration of refugees on some cities is not compatible with being Pareto efficient and strate-gyproof.
Signaling role of patenting decisions
This thesis analyzes a strategic environment in which firms compete under simultaneous innovation and choose between filing a patent and relying on secrecy to protect their intellectual property. We build a theoretical model in which an inventor is essential to production and the inventor's ability is the key determinant of his or her productivity. Under full information, in which firms observe each other's innovation output and the inventor's ability, they opt for patenting and there is turnover only when the inventor has low ability. Incorporating informational asymmetry when firms have simultaneous innovation with certainty leads to an equilibrium in which the incumbent has incentives to distort optimal patent filing decision. The incumbent firm does not file a patent to avoid losing the inventor to the competitor and paying higher retention wages, whereas the competitor is granted a patent but cannot transfer knowledge. Our results indicate that under asymmetric information firms are more likely to patent their innovation under strong property rights, weaker rivalry, and higher monopoly profit. By contrast, higher ability difference between the inventor types is more important on turnover and choosing secrecy as the protection mechanism. When simultaneous innovation is possible but not definite, we find a threshold of simultaneous innovation probability over which firms choose to file a patent. This threshold increases with stronger property rights, higher monopoly profits and lower duopoly profits. Also, assuming a 0.5 ratio between duopoly and monopoly profits, we show that firms file a patent when simultaneous innovation occurs at a rate that is higher than the lost profit due to revealing information with patents.
Assessing trend and cycle components of inflation and employment in Türkiye
In this paper, we investigate the permanent and transitory components of both CPI inflation and Aggregate Employment in Turkiye. We construct an Unobserved Component Analysis Model (UCM) to measure trend inflation (employment) and cycle inflation (employment), and conduct empirical analyses to scrutinize the re- lations among these terms and other several macroeconomic variables such as the USDTRY Parity, Aggregate Credit Stock Growth in Turkiye and the Brent Oil prices. We show that the changes in the USDTRY Parity has statistically signif- icant and positive effect on cycle inflation. Further, we indicate that permanent component of inflation enlarged in recent years and that the volatility of employment increased since 2014. We provide historical decompositions of the CPI inflation and employment in Turkiye, and exhibit our empirical analysis.
Essays on the micro foundations of monetary policy
The first essay explores the connection between technological breakthroughs and the subsequent moderation of real and nominal economic activity. By developing a New Keynesian DSGE model that incorporates vintage technology adoption and learning, the impact of learning on the volatility of economic variables is examined. The process of learning and reorganization during the adoption of new technology moderates economic fluctuations, especially in economies closer to the technological frontier. If the central bank does not account for this learning process when measuring potential output and the output gap, it will respond more aggressively to shocks, further attenuating economic fluctuations. This leads to a flattening of the measured Phillips curve. The empirical analysis, which uses cross-country data, supports the main implications of the model. A significant portion of the observed moderation in the sample countries can be explained by an index that proxies a country's proximity to the technological frontier. As the model suggests, countries nearer to the technological frontier, which require more intensive learning processes, exhibit greater moderation in real and nominal economic activity. Other factors, such as openness to trade, central bank independence etc. turn out to be less important. The second essay studies the role of central bank credibility in affecting agents' inflation expectations and, hence, inflation trends and it contributes to the micro foundation of central bank credibility. A measure of central bank credibility is derived in the context of a New Keynesian framework with agents' imperfect knowledge about the central bank targets. Agents do not know the central bank's actual inflation target and the effective weight on price stability relative to the output gap. This way, central bank credibility is shown to be the product of agents' beliefs about the central bank's effective focus on price stability and the conduct of monetary policy, and this definition can explain inflation and agents' forecasts in both developed and emerging countries. The model is then estimated through Bayesian techniques, employing surveys about professionals' inflation expectations, as well as official data on CPI, for the case of the US and Turkey. Results indicate that recent long-term inflation forecast trends can be explained by the central bank's credibility level in both countries. In particular, during the recent energy price shock, US inflation expectations remained stable thanks to increased central bank credibility. At the same time, Turkey experienced a deterioration in central bank credibility, with consequent unanchored and highly volatile inflation forecasts. Finally, the model shows that improving central bank credibility leads to anchored expectations and stabilizes the inflation rate. The third essay estimates the marginal cost curves of heterogeneous firms to provide evidence on the slope of the Phillips curve. The New Keynesian framework is extended to incorporate heterogeneous firms in terms of production technology, thereby delivering an explicit role for resource reallocation. This way, the study estimates firms' pricing equations, utilizing prices and quantities of outputs and factor inputs of French and Dutch manufacturing firms along with exogenous downstream demand instruments from global input-output and trade data to identify the parameters. Firm-level data are from the micro-data infrastructure (MDI) database, newly built under the EU Technical Support Instrument project. Model heterogeneity is addressed using a clustering method to classify firms according to their production technology and observed cost shock pass-through. It is, hence, found that more productive firms have flatter marginal cost curves and exhibit a lower price response to changes in output. The aggregate Phillips curve is flatter when the more productive firms absorb a larger portion of demand shocks, which is generally the case. Finally, CompNet micro-based data from several European countries support these findings for the non-farm business sector.
Uluslararası lisansüstü öğrencilerin üniversitelerin inovatif çıktılarına etkisi
This thesis explores the impact of international graduate students in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) fields in the United States on the innovative outputs of U.S. universities. The analysis focuses on both innovation production of universities, measured by the patent grants, and the quality of these innovations, measured by the citations received by these patents. The study examines biennial periods from 1994 to 2016. To capture the causality, I employ the instrumental variables (IV) approach. The instrument exploits the historical distribution of international graduate students as a predictor of future migration flows. The findings indicate a positive and significant impact of international graduate students on patent counts, but no significant effect on patent citations.
Relational contracting and on-the-job search
In this study, I examine how firms can affect workers' job search efforts to be socially efficient with their counteroffer policies. I consider a repeated game where generations of workers take part in costly on-the-job searches. If an outside offer is realized for a worker, the employer firm can either make a counteroffer that matches the worker's outside offer or commit to not making a counteroffer based on the outside offer. I show that when firms choose to match workers' outside offers, workers spend too much effort on job search. Further, I derive an equilibrium where all firms are able to implement an efficient level of effort by not matching workers' outside offers and provide the conditions for the existence of this equilibrium.
Sibling effects on attitudes towards competition
Recent research in economics has explored how competition preferences could be a partial explanation for differences in labor outcomes between men and women. This paper investigates how sibling gender compositions can give insights about competition preferences of young students, which may shape their occupational and economic preferences in the future. To understand the mechanisms behind students' competition preferences, we look at whether younger male siblings affect other predictors of competitiveness, such as risk attitude and self-confidence. For eldest children with a single younger sibling, the gender of the younger sibling is random. Utilizing the random gender assignment, we examine the effect of this on competitive behavior of the eldest child. Our analysis reveals that for eldest girls, having a younger brother increases competitiveness, while having a younger sisters decrease competitiveness. No significant impact is not observed for eldest boy. Additionally, for youngest girls, older brothers increase competition preferences, whereas older sisters have no noticeable impact on preferences for either gender. Self-confidence, rather than risk attitudes, appears to play a role in these impacts.
The impact of work permission policies on foreign graduation
Countries often use visa policies to attract foreign talent in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). The Optional Practical Training (OPT) program attracts high-skilled students and prospective workers by granting a 12- month U.S. work authorization to foreign graduates of U.S. institutions. In 2008, the U.S. government extended the OPT duration to 29 months for foreign graduates of STEM programs. This thesis examines the impacts of this OPT extension policy on the number of international students graduating with a STEM degree from U.S. universities and colleges. Using data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), we focus on the impact at both the bachelor's and master's levels. Identifying the effects of the OPT extension on student migration is methodologically challenging due to the upward trend in the enrollment of international students, driven particularly by certain origin countries. The standard two-way fixed effects (TWFE) difference-in-differences (DD) analysis, with all non-STEM programs as our control group, shows that the OPT reform increases foreign graduation by 16% at the bachelor's level and 45% at the master's level. However, when the control group is constructed via the synthetic control method (SCM), by closely matching the characteristics of the treated programs in our sample, the two-way fixed effects regressions show that the OPT reform does not affect foreign graduation at the bachelor's level and increases it by only 29% at the master's level. We also find that the impact of the OPT reform on foreign graduation varies greatly based on program characteristics. The past networks of programs, in terms of the origin of foreign students, and their selectivity affect the size of the effect of the OPT policy, yet the local economic conditions do not. Particularly, the impact of the OPT is larger for STEM programs that attracted more students from Asia in the pre-policy period and for more selective programs.
An experimental study on responsibility as a motivating factor
This study investigates the motivational effects of responsibility, as a prosocial incentive to put effort, compared to only material incentives. In a field experiment on elementary school students, participants were randomly assigned to one of three incentive schemes while completing a simple cognitive task: a material incentive group earning one point per correct answer, a higher-reward material incentive group earning two points per correct answer, and a responsibility group earning one point for themselves and one for an unknown peer per correct answer. The study examines performance differences across treatments, focusing on gender and ability as factors of heterogeneity. Results show that elementary school students' performance is on average insensitive to both material and prosocial incentives. However, girls and boys' effort response to responsibility is different, with responsibility motivating boys more positively than girls. We also analyze the links between altruism and the response to treatments.
The effect of the Leahy-Smith America Invents Act on knowledge transfers through inventor mobility
On September 16, 2011, President Barack Obama signed the Leahy-Smith America Invents Act (AIA) into law, replacing the century-old first-to-invent patent awarding system with a first-to-file rule. While prior research has documented how this reform altered firms' R&D intensity choices and patenting behavior, its impact on the labor market for inventors remains largely unexplored. This thesis addresses that gap by focusing on mobile inventors (inventors who switch firms) and examines how their mobility facilitates knowledge transfer to the hiring firm. After identifying mobile inventors, I employ the Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM) method to construct a control sample of non-mobile inventors who have not switched firms but are similar to mobile inventors in pre-mobility characteristics. Then, using a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach, I show that hiring firms increase their use of new recruits' pre-move inventions after employing them. Moreover, the impact of inventor mobility extends beyond direct use: the tacit knowledge of the new hire diffuses throughout the hiring firm and becomes part of its broader knowledge base. Finally, I examine how the AIA affects knowledge transfers through inventor mobility. Applying a novel difference-in-differences-in-differences (DiDiD) design, I find that the AIA significantly reduces the diffusion of tacit knowledge from new hires, an unintended consequence that works against the reform's objectives.
Analysis of international student mobility by education levels
This thesis examines the factors influencing international student mobility and how these effects vary by education level. Drawing on the literature on gravity models of migration, the study analyzes OECD data on international student flows from 2013 to 2020, covering 24 destination countries and 174 origins. Consistent with prior research, the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator is employed. In addition, the analysis addresses the relatively underexplored issue of multilateral resistance to migration. The key finding is that master's students exhibit a distinct approach to studying abroad: whereas bachelor's and doctoral students tend to follow a migration-based trajectory, master's students adopt a more balanced combination of the migration model and the human capital model. Beyond this overarching result, the study also identifies several education-level-specific variations in the influence of different factors.
From Syria to Turkey: Age-differentiated employment effects of forced migration on Syrian women
This thesis examines the impact of forced migration on the employment of Syrian refugee women in Turkey using retrospective data from the 2018 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey. Unlike studies in the literature that only compare refugees to the host country population, this research examines employment changes before and after displacement. Additionally, this research examines the varying effects across different age groups across all main and sub-analyses. It is found that migration to Turkey increased the employment rates of Syrian women, but the effects differed significantly by age. Women under 18 experienced the largest gains (6.7 percentage points), those aged 18-24 experienced moderate increases (2.3-5.3 percentage points), and women over 24 experienced minimal changes. Our analysis of three mechanisms explains this heterogeneity: household dependency ratios influence young women's employment decisions; regional labor market concentration benefits young migrants while disadvantaging older women through competition; and pre-migration work experience positively impacts all groups but is diminished for older women due to skill transferability issues. These findings highlight the mistreatment of refugee women as homogeneous and put an importance on the need for age-targeted integration policies.
Türkiye`de imalat sanayinin sektörel bazda incelenmesi -girdi çıktı yaklaşımıyla-
çıktı analizi, ekonomik yahpının incelenmesini sağlayan en güvenilir araçlardan biridir. Girdi- çıktı tabloları sayesinde, ülke ekonomisi çok yönlü olarak incelenebilmektedir. Ülke ekonomisinin gelecekte nasıl bir şekil alacağı, sektörler arasındaki daralmanın veya genişlemenin gerçekleşebileceği tablolar aracılığı ile belirlenebilmektedir. Ayrıca girdi- çıktı analizi ekonomide karşılaşılabilecek bir krizin ve krize karşı alınabilecek önlemlerin belirlenebimesi açısından da önemli bir yer tutar. Girdi -çıktı tabloları, her yıl hazırlanması çok pahalı ve zaman aldığından tablolar RAS yöntemiyle istenilen yıla güncelleştirilmektedir. Çalışmada girdi- çıktı analizinin ön tanıtımından sonra, 1990 yılı girdi- çıktı tablosu 1995 yılı için güncelleştirilmiştir. Ayrıca 2000 yılı girdi- çıktı akım tablosuda tahmin edilmiştir. Kalkınma stratejilerinde istenilen hedeflere ulaşılırken, sektörel öncelikteki kararlar, hangi bilgilere, kriterlere göre verilmelidir? Bu gibi sorulara verilen cevaplar karşımıza yatırım öncelikli (kilit) sektörler kavramını çıkarmaktadır. 1995 yılı için çalışmanın beşinci bölümünde Türkiye ekonomisi için yatırım öncelikli sektörler belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca 2000 yılı yatırım öncelikli sektörleri de tahmin edilmiştir. Nihai talebin, ihracatın, ithal ikamesinin ve teknolojik gelişmelerin, sektörlerdeki üretim artışlarını etkileme oranlan altmcı bölümün konusunu oluşturmaktadır. Çalışmanın son bölümünde ise Türkiye için uygulanan girdi- çıktı analizi Ege bölgesi için uygulanmıştır. Bölgedeki yatırım öncelikli sektörler152 belirlenerek, bölge ekonomisinin analizi yapılmıştır. Bölge ekonomisi ile Türkiye ekonomisinin bir karşılaştırılması yapılmıştır.
Türkiye'nin Türkî Cumhuriyetler ile dış ticaretinin gelişimi: 1991-2019 dönem analizi
Bu tezde, Sovyet Sosyalist Cumhuriyetler Birliği sonrası bağımsızlığını elde etmiş, Bağımsız Devletler Topluluğu üyesi Türkî Cumhuriyetlerin (Kazakistan, Özbekistan, Azerbaycan, Kırgızistan, Türkmenistan) Türkiye ile mevcut iktisadi ve ticari ilişkileri incelenmektedir. Bu ülkelerden özellikle Türkmenistan, Kazakistan ve Azerbaycan önemli hidrokarbon rezervlerinin bulunduğu ülkelerdir. Tarih, kültür, din ve dil konusunda ortak geçmişi bulunan Türkiye'nin bu devletlere olan yönelimi 1991-2019 dönemlerindeki ticaret hacimleri ve ticarete konu ürünler incelenmiştir. Ayrıca Türkiye'nin, bu ülkelerin toplam dış ticaret hacmindeki payı ve ekonomilerindeki yeri ve önemi ele alınmaktadır. Uluslararası ticaretin, iktisat bilimi içerisindeki yeri teori, politika ve yaklaşımları, temel esasları ile anlatılmaktadır. Türkiye'nin Türkî Devletler ile olan iktisadi ve ticari ilişkileri bu çerçevede tahlil ve analiz edilmektedir. Asya ekonomisinin günden güne gücünü arttırması, Türkiye'nin artan kaynak ve enerji ihtiyacını giderebilmesi için Kafkasya ve Orta Asya coğrafyasıyla olan ilişkilerinin daha verimli ve kaliteli ilişkilere dönüştürmesini zorunlu hale getirmiştir. Bu devletlerle olan iktisadi işbirliğinin 30 yıllık bağımsızlık geçmişi düşünüldüğünde Türkiye'nin AB, Afrika ve Orta Doğu coğrafyasına olan iktisadi ilişkilerine göre daha geride takip ettiği gözlemlenmiştir. Sorunların çözümü ve ticaret kapasitesinin arttırılması için gerekli olan gümrük ve tariflere düzenleme getirilmesi, avantajlı ticaret yolları belirlenmesi ve mali yükü arttıran bürokratik engellerin kaldırılması gibi birtakım öneriler tezde mevcuttur.
Financial development, human capital and economic growth nexus in Western and Central Africa: A comparative analysis
This thesis analysed the relationship among Economic Growth (GDP/Income), Financial Development (FD), and Human Capital (HC) for 20 Sub-Saharan African countries from 1970 to 2023 using the panel VARX approach. Results suggested, among others, that Trade (in all the zones); Health HC and Oil Prices (in Global and ECOWAS models); Health and Education HC (in ECOWAS and WAMZ); Money Supply (in FCFA zone and WAMZ); and GGE (General Government Expenditure), Education HC and General Price Level (in WAEMU); have positive impacts on income. Nevertheless, GGE (in FCFA zone), and both HC types (in BEAC and FCFA areas) effects on income are negative. FD (irrespective of the proxy used) is positively impacted by GDP (in FCFA and WAEMU zones); and negatively impacted by Health Human Capital (in FCFA and WAEMU zones). FD (proxied by DC (Domestic Credit)) is positively impacted by Income (Global, ECOWAS, FCFA, WAEMU, and WAMZ models); Education HC (in CEMAC, FCFA zones); Health HC (in ECOWAS) and Broad Money/BM (in CEMAC); and is negatively impacted by Education HC (in WAMZ); Health HC (in Global model) and BM (in WAEMU). As for economic and financial policies, the West and Central African monetary authorities, governents and policymakers in general, should stimulate economic growth by producing more goods and services for export, by facilitating access to domestic credit, by encouraging health and education investments by public as well as private sectors, and avoiding expansionary monetary policies. Contrariwise, specifically for WAEMU case, some inflation (like increasing money supply) may boost economic growth.
The role of monetary policy in controlling the rate of inflation in Iraq (2004 - 2020)
This dissertation demonstrated the part of monetary policy in regulating the inflation rate in Iraq. To attain this purpose, a modeling technique of the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) approach has been used, and Monthly information has been collected for the period (31/12/2004 to 31/7/2020). Hence, the outcome of the unit root test for stationary implies that the inflation rate is stable at the level, and other variables are stable at the initial alteration. However, the Johansen Co-integration Test result reveals the relationships between the inflation rate and all changes for the far future. Moreover, the Granger causality outcome shows two-direction causality among narrow money supply and exchange rate granger causes inflation rate. Unidirectional granger connection between inflation rate granger causes board money supply as well as the interest rate. Finally, the outcome of the (ARDL) model reveals that the money supply, as well as exchange rate, is significant and favorably linked to inflation. The conclusion is that a rise in the money supply and exchange rate causes Iraq to experience severe inflation. The interest rate has an essential and contradictory association with the interest rate as well as the inflation rate in Iraq. It specifies that a rise in the interest rate causes a reduced inflation rate in Iraq.
Merkez Bankası bağımsızlığı ve politikaları neticesinde ekonomik büyüme (Türkiye örneği)
1980'li yıllardan itibaren gündem bulan merkez bankası bağımsızlığı, üzerine henüz araştırmaların devam ettiği yeni bir çalışma alanıdır. Zaman tutarsızlığı ve hoş olmayan monetarist görüş gibi temellere dayandırılan bağımsızlık kavramı, bankanın hükümetten bağımsız hareket edebilmesi, aynı şekilde nihai hedeflerini belirlemesi anlamına gelmektedir. Bu durum merkez bankası otoritesinin enflasyonist karşıtı olması sonucunu ortaya çıkarmıştır. Bu çalışmada, merkez bankası bağımsızlık süreci, bu süreci belirleyen etkilerin teorik altyapısı incelenmiştir. Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası bağımsızlığının enflasyon, üretim, bütçe açığı ve büyüme oranı üzerine etkisi incelenerek ülke ekonomisine etkisi açıklanmıştır.
Gelı̇şmı̇ş ve gelı̇şmekte olan ülkelerde ı̇şgücü pı̇yasası dı̇namı̇klerı̇
ABSTRACT The primary goal of this study is to analyze labor market dynamics in both developed and developing countries using a search and matching model. To estimate the duration dependence parameter and matching function for both types of countries, we employed panel data and OLS techniques. For developed countries, the duration dependence results show that the coefficient for unemployment duration is negative and statistically significant. Additionally, the matching function results indicate that the job vacancy rate coefficient is positive but not statistically significant, while the unemployment rate coefficient is negative and highly significant. The matching function outcomes suggest that in Turkey and China, unemployment coefficients are negative and not statistically significant. However, job vacancies positively influence matches and are statistically significant. In Chile, the unemployment coefficient is positive and statistically significant. Although the job vacancy rate also has a positive effect, this effect was not statistically confirmed. For Costa Rica, the unemployment coefficient is positive but not significant, while the job vacancy rate coefficient is positive and statistically significant. In Korea, both the unemployment and job vacancy rate coefficients are positive and statistically significant. These findings enhance understanding of the resilience and transitions of the labor market before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. They offer valuable insights for policymakers on designing labor market recovery strategies that address vacancies, unemployment durations, and employment transitions. Keywords: Search and matching theory, Job finding rate, Labor market flows, Covid-19 crisis, Developed and developing countries.
Ürün ambalaj renklerinin satin alma niyeti üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye ve Kazakistan'dan örnegi
Behavioral economics has emerged as one of the most significant advancements in economic thought over the past few decades. Unlike traditional economic models that assume people always make rational decisions, behavioral economics recognizes that human choices are often influenced by cognitive biases, emotions, and mental shortcuts. This study examines how packaging color affects consumer purchasing decisions, by presenting the same products in different color schemes, showing how color acts not only as a framing device but also as a behavioral nudge, revealing how cultural and generational differences shape consumer perception through key principles of behavioral economics. It focuses on how warm colors are often linked to indulgence and impulsive choices, known as vice, and cool colors, usually connected to self-control and healthier options, known as virtue, influence how consumers respond to packaging and marketing. Using an experimental method, data was collected through surveys from people of various ages, income levels, and educational backgrounds in both Türkiye and Kazakhstan. Keywords: behavioral economics, consumer behavior, packaging color, cognitive bias, nudging, decision-making, cross-cultural study, experiment, Türkiye, Kazakhstan
Ülkeler arasında mali sürtünmeler, toplam verimlilik farklılıkları ve gelir dağılımı
This essay analyses the effect of credit frictions on capital misallocation, aggregate output, productivity, and income divergencies between countries. The essay is composed of five chapters that analyse how credit misallocation from financial frictions impact cross-country income differences. The first chapter identifies the key sources of financial frictions and demonstrates how frictions embedded in the intermediation process generate capital misallocation by driving wedges between savings and credit, investment, inputs and outputs, allocation of entrepreneurial talent, and occupational choices. In chapter two, I review the broad evidence on credit market frictions on GDP and cross-country income distribution. I then locate the specific causal channels and the key underlying mechanisms through which these frictions affect resource allocation and economic development. The third section presents a standard model of development with incomplete financial markets characterised by frictions to capture and quantitatively evaluate the impact of financial impediments on total output, aggregate productivity, and income differences between countries. The model presented in this section is of an economy with a dual financial scheme: a credit and savings regime. The households or firms with sufficient savings or wealth endowments become entrepreneurs, while those without adequate savings and capital choose to become wage earners by supplying labour or exiting the market. Talented households without savings can decide to become entrepreneurs by borrowing but must posit collateral thus, the size of the loan is dependent on the collateral value. Collateral thus, act as a borrowing constraint. The study emphasises frictions originating from – borrowing constraints (collateral), participation costs, and intermediation costs. Chapter four presents the findings. The main conclusion drawn from this essay is that there is a robust connection between financial frictions, credit misallocation, aggregate output losses, lower TFP, and economic underdevelopment. These results confirm the evidence that financial frictions amplify and perpetuate the persistence of income variations between countries. The main idea presented in the model is that financial frictions inhibit some establishments from hiring inputs to adopting modern technologies and accessing credit for investment which lower TFP and amplify income gaps. The estimates show large income and TFP losses exceeding 30% of GDP within countries with underdeveloped financial markets indicating that a move to the frontier of financial development by poor countries with underdeveloped financial markets could increase productivity, income, and GDP significantly. These estimates broadly mirror recent empirical findings observed in the literature on financing frictions and cross-country income gaps. In the absence of financial frictions, TFP and output loss would reduce significantly to about 5% due to efficiency gains.
Coğrafya ve ticaret üzerine üç makale
Economic activity is unevenly distributed across physical space, influenced by the location, climate, and natural resources of a region. This dissertation contributes to the field of economic geography and quantitative spatial modeling through three essays that address key gaps in the literature. The first chapter examines the impact of local markets for non-tradable inputs on urban land prices. By using disaggregated spatial data and a two-stage estimation approach with market access as an instrumental variable, I find that districts with 1% more housing used by professional businesses have land prices that are 0.59% higher on average. This estimate increases to 1.24% when adjusted for potential endogeneity, and with robustness confirmed through alternative market access definitions. The second chapter estimates trade elasticity for Turkish exports at the product level. Utilizing detailed data on import tariffs and trade flows, I analyze the effects of tariff variations on trade flows. The median trade elasticity estimate is -4.48, with differences observed between homogeneous and differentiated goods, as well as between consumption, capital, and intermediate goods. The calculated Turkish welfare gains from trade are 19.8% using a homogeneous aggregate trade elasticity, increasing to 23.8% with heterogeneous trade elasticities in a multi-sector trade model. The third chapter investigates the effects of Turkey's large infrastructure development program (2005-2015) on the size dispersion within local industries. Improved infrastructure, measured by travel time savings, decreases size dispersion by enhancing access to potential suppliers. This effect reduces trade costs and allows smaller firms to access cheaper inputs. No evidence of pro-competitive pressure affecting size dispersion was found. Overall, this dissertation advances our understanding of urban economic outcomes, international trade, and domestic trade by addressing significant gaps in economic geography and spatial modeling literature.
ABD para politikalarının gelişmekte olan ülkelere yayılma etkileri
This study investigates how the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy tightenings on emerging markets have evolved over time, specifically examining the changes in the magnitude of these effects. The analysis focuses on the tightening periods of 1994, 2004, 2015, and 2022, utilizing a four-variable Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model with stochastic volatility. The findings reveal apparent differences in both the magnitude of the impacts and the dominant channels across time and countries. In particular, exchange rate and real economy responses vary depending on each country's specific periods and structural vulnerabilities. Overall, the results show that the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks have not weakened uniformly over time; instead, they have differed depending on the nature of the shocks, global financial conditions, and domestic dynamics of the countries.
Faydanın yarı aktarılabilir olduğu durumlarda işbirlikli davranışın incelenmesi
The primary purpose of this study is to analyze both cooperative and noncooperative games under semitransferable utility. In game theory literature, utility seems so far to have been assumed not to be transferable at all in noncooperative games, while both fully transferable and nontransferable utility are considered in the context of cooperative games. There are, however, an abundance of real life situations, where utility is partially transferable. Here we introduce the notion of semitransferable utility, which encompasses full-transferability and nontransferability as its two extreme special subcases. We explore and exemplify what changes some well-known equilibrium notions undergo when one allows utility to be only partially transferable. In particular, we relate core allocations in a convex cooperative transferable utility (TU) game to their counterparts in a corresponding strategic context, to show that, for each core allocation of a given TU game, there is a strategic form game, where that allocation survives, while almost all other allocations are eliminated.
Oda arkadaşı problemi için kararlı kuralların uzantıları üzerine bir çalışma
Roommate problems might not have a stable solution. But for such problems we are still faced with the problem of matching the agents. One natural approach would be to match the agents in such a way that the resulting matching is "close" to being stable. Such solution concepts should select stable matchings when they exist and select matchings "close" to being stable when the problem does not have any stable matchings. We work with the following solution concepts, Almost Stability, Maximum Irreversibility, Maximum Internal Stability, P-stability and Q-stability, and define a new solution concept, called Iterated P-stability. We investigate consistency, population monotonicity, competition sensitivity and resource sensitivity of these solution concepts. We also explore Maskin monotonicity of these solution concepts.
Bir nash pazarlık oyununda Kantiyen dengeler
This thesis studies Kantian equilibria (Roemer, 2010) of an n-player bargaining game, which is a modified version of the well-known divide-the-dollar game. It starts with introducing the fundamental concepts of Kantian morality and how Kantian moral theory is captured in economic theory. Then, we first show that the Kantian equilibrium exists under fairly minimal assumptions. Second, if the bankruptcy rule used satisfies equal treatment of equals, and is almost nowhere proportional, then only equal division can prevail in any Kantian equilibrium. On the other hand, we show that an 'anything goes' type result emerges only under the proportional rule. Furthermore, using hybrid bankruptcy rules that we construct in a novel fashion, we can characterize the whole equilibrium set. Lastly, we analyse what happens to the equilibrium behavior and the axiomatic properties of the bankruptcy rules under the additive definition of Kantian equilibrium. Our results highlight the interactions between institutions (axiomatic properties of division rules) and agents' equilibrium behavior.
Ülke içinde yerinden edilme kadınların beşeri sermaye birikimi üzerinde bir yük müdür? Türkiye'den kanıtlar
Over the last 35 years, Turkey has been fighting with an outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in East and Southeast Anatolia. The increasingly fierce struggle from the mid-80s to the late 90s led to thousands of internally displaced people. Using Turkey Demographic Health Survey, we define displaced women as those who migrated for security reasons from conflict regions between 1984-99 to understand the long-term impact of forced migration on the educational attainment of displaced women. Our results show that internal displacement decreases years of schooling by one year, and the detrimental effect mainly stems from the reduced level of primary and secondary school completion. We also investigate the mechanisms through which internal displacement affects educational outcomes and show that internal displacement increased the probability of working before the age of 15. We also find evidence that internal displacement decreased marriage age and increased the possibility of being in a forced marriage.
Suriyeli mültecilerin Türkiye'deki çocuk işçiliğine etkileri
During the last decade, nearly 3.7 million Syrian found refuge in Turkey, making it the largest refugee host country in the world. Different from other refugee-hosting countries, almost all the refugees live in urban areas, which makes it easier for them to benefit from social and economic opportunities. This paper analyzes the impact of Syrian refugees on young (15-17 years) native's labor market outcomes using Turkish Household Labor Force Surveys from 2004-2018. We employ a difference-in-difference IV methodology, using the variation in refugees to native ratio and a distance instrument. We find a positive effect on native boys' employment and no effect on native girls. In addition, there is no effect on child labor and working hours for both males and females, while there is a positive effect on boys' labor force participation only. Controlling for the heterogeneity of refugee's effect using household head education level, we find a positive effect on native boy's employment and labor force participation when the household head is less educated.
Zenginlik-boş zaman bağıntısının dinamik sonuçları
This thesis analyses a one-sector optimal growth model in which wealth affects the utility obtained from leisure. We consider that an increase in wealth increases the propensity to consume leisure goods and services and hence affects how the instantaneous utility depends on leisure time. We prove the existence of the optimal path and characterize the dynamics and the properties of equilibria. We provide the conditions under which the model has unique or multiple steady states. The intensity of wealth in the utility obtained from leisure and the output elasticity of physical capital play an important role in the number of steady states and in the monotonicity of the optimal path of physical capital. We find that the optimal path of physical capital is monotonic and converges to the unique steady state, provided that the output elasticity of capital is higher than the intensity of wealth in the utility obtained from leisure.
İşletme sermayesi kanalının para politikası aktarımına etkileri
This thesis examines the effects of the working capital channel on monetary policy transmission under a two-sector new Keynesian model, where one of the sectors has working capital requirements. The model follows the framework presented by Woodford (2003). Introducing working capital into the model brings about two additional monetary policy transmission channels: the working capital channel and the substitution channel, relative to the standard new Keynesian model. The working capital channel reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing inflation within the model while also increasing the sensitivity of the output gap to monetary policy. Simultaneously, the substitution channel helps mitigate the impact of working capital on aggregate inflation. Moreover, the presence of the working capital channel gives rise to the distributional effects of monetary policy on the economy. The substitution channel exacerbates the adverse effect of contractionary policy on firms with working capital requirements, whereas expansionary monetary policy leads to a higher demand for the goods produced by these firms.
Model belirlenmesi amacında kullanılan bilgisayar yoğunluklu teknikler
ABSTRACT COMPUTER INTENSIVE TECHNIQUES FOR MODEL SELECTION SIDIKA BAŞÇI Ph.D Thesis in Economics Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Asad Zaman May 1998 There are three essays in this dissertation. In the first one, which appears in Chapter 2, a comparison of finite sample performances of six model selection crite ria for Autoregressive (AR) processes exists. Simulation results report the effects of being parsimonious while selecting the model on forecasting. Moreover, in the chap ter the assumption of normality, which can be seen in all of the previous theoretical and emprical studies, is relaxed and performances of the criteria under non-normal distributions are investigated. The second essay is presented in Chapter 3. In this essay three new model selection criteria are suggested where cross-validated esti mates of variances are used. In the chapter, a comparison of the finite sample performances of these new criteria with the already existing ones is presented. The main concern of the third essay, that appears in Chapter 4, is detecting structural change when the change point is unknown. In the chapter, we derive some Bayesian tests to detect structural change with unknown change point under the assumptions of different prior distributions. Key Words: Model selection, autoregressive processes, lag order determination, forecasting, cross-validation, structural change, unknown change point, Bayesian approach. m
Talebe dayalı varlık paylaşım problemlerinde Nash dengeleri
Estate division game is an allocation of an estate between players based on a rule. In this thesis, we consider estate division games and study the necessary and sufficient conditions for division rules under which Nash equilibria induce equal division. Ashlagi, Karag özo ğlu, Klaus (2012) introduce classes of properties for division rules and show that they are sufficient for all Nash equilibria to induce equal division. In this study, we propose a different property, namely conditional full compensation, and prove that it is also a sufficient condition for division rules in order for all Nash equilibria outcomes under these rules to be equal division. We, then, show that under any rule satisfying claims boundedness and conditional equal division lower bound, equal division is a Nash equilibrium outcome. Finally, we prove that letting at least one player get more than the difference between the whole estate and the sum of other players' claims is a necessary condition for all Nash equilibria to induce equal division. Keywords : Estate division game, division rule, Nash equilibrium, equal division.