The effect of fear of migration in America on macroeconomic variables

Along with the population problems that have increased significantly in recent years, migration movements, refugee crisis and immigration problems hold the boards. Regardless of the cause, immigration and the resulting fear of immigration cause certain effects on society. The material and moral effects of migration cause changes in microeconomic performance in the countries of origin and destination. Especially economic effects have been effective in creating and implementing policies regarding migration. In this study, 1990-2022 annual data of the US economy, as well as immigration fear index, immigration policy uncertainty index, inflation rate and unemployment rate data were used. First of all, the stationarity of the variables was tested with Extended Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests and it was determined that the variables were stationary at I(1) difference levels. The causality relationship between the variables was tested with Granger Causality and Toda&Yamamoto Causality tests, and bidirectional causality was identified between immigration policy uncertainty and inflation rate.