Econometric analysis of the relationship between regionally based house price index and macroeconomic factors: The case of Tr33 region

Housing is recognized as one of the most basic needs of humanity. In our country, people have preferred the housing market both to meet their most basic needs and to transfer their wealth to a reliable source. In the first part of the study, definitions about housing, housing market characteristics and the supply and demand structure of the housing market are presented. In the second part of the study, information on the stakeholders of the housing market in the world and in Turkey is provided and the classification, activities and structure of the TR33 region are explained. In the third part of the study, the purpose, problem, research data and findings of the study are presented. The aim of this study is to reveal to what extent the TR33 house price index, which is the dependent variable, is affected by macroeconomic factors, which are the weighted average interest rates applied to housing loans extended by banks, consumer price index, manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate, consumer confidence index, industrial production index and real effective exchange rate based on rifle. In the study using monthly data set covering the period 2010:01 - 2022:12, econometric analysis was performed with time series analysis. The stationarity levels of the variables are analyzed by ADF and PP unit root tests and it is concluded that the variables are stationary at the first order. The cointegration relationship between the variables was examined by ARDL test and it was found that there is a cointegration relationship between the variables. The causality relationship between the variables is investigated by Granger causality test. According to the results, there is a bidirectional Granger causality relationship from TR33 House Price Index to Exchange Rate, TÜFE, TÜGE and SUE, and a unidirectional Granger causality relationship between KFO and İMSKO.