Econometric analysis of hazelnut production and foreign trade in Turkey

Turkey ranks first in the world hazelnut production with its suitable climate and soil structure. The main region of hazelnut cultivation in Turkey is the Eastern Black Sea region. Hazelnut, which has an extremely strategic importance in terms of the country's economy, has been the main source of income for the people living in the Eastern Black Sea region. The aim of this study is to examine the planting area, production amount, yield and current situation in foreign trade of hazelnut, which is an important export product, and to examine the agricultural policies applied in hazelnut production, to reveal the problems experienced in the hazelnut sector and to develop policy recommendations about the hazelnut market. In the study, the hazelnut market was examined by using time series analysis. The situation of the hazelnut market between the years 1990-2020 has been examined and the situation between the years 2021-2030 has been estimated. According to the results of the analysis, it has been estimated that the hazelnut planting areas, which were 734,537 hectares in 2020 in Turkey, will be 935,512 hectares in 2030. It is predicted that the hazelnut yield will increase up to 92.73 kg/da and our production amount will be 867,593 tons in 2030 depending on the yield and planting area. Hazelnut export, which was 624,412 tons in 2020, is expected to be 737,140 tons in 2030. As a result of the study, it was estimated that there would be a balance surplus due to the increase in hazelnut supply in the coming years, due to the insufficient increase in exports and domestic consumption, and it was estimated that there would be 11,867 tons of stock by 2030. In order for the stocks to contribute to the country's economy, it is necessary to increase the capacities of the existing hazelnut processing facilities and to implement policies that will allow new initiatives. Priority should be given to the efforts for the acceptance of processed products in the world markets and for Turkish hazelnut to become a world brand. Keywords: Hazelnut Production, Agricultural Policy, Partial Equilibrium Analysis, Time Series Analysis