Innovation of the new product and forecasting the innovation of the new product's sales

Corporations have to make innovations in order to protect their assets in the market and carry them to the future. These innovations can be made for existing products, services or processes. Companies use many methods to choose where and how to realize innovation when making these innovations. Nowadays, a Design Thinking Method has been used to make this innovation choice. By developing their existing products, companies should anticipate how this scenario, which will ocur when they launch this product, will result for companies before there lease of a new product. With this forecasting work done, after launching their new products; companies will demand to forecast the sales of the new product using the sales data of the existing old product. However, in a model, even with out the sales data of the product; it is aimed to forecast the sales of the new product as taking into account the sales data of the product before it was developed. This model as one of the Diffusion models, is the model which was invented by Frank Bass. The Bass Diffusion Model is used as a common diffusion model to predict the initial sales of a new durable product. The purpose of this model is to demonstrate how the first sales of the new product are adopted in society using a mathematical form. Accordingto Frank Bass, there are two types of customers that will realize this adoption fact. While a type of them consists of innovators, the other type of customers consists of imitators. In order to demonstrate the adoption, the basic parameters p, q and m of the Bass Diffusion Model should be presumed. Tofind p, q and m parameters, Frank Bass has applied the technique of Least Squares.In this study, parameter estimations have been realized by using sales data of a concrete crushing machine produced by a private construction company. After parameter estimations, time of the peak sales and number of the peak sales have been estimated. After the results obtained and when the actual and forecasted sales data were compared, it was seen that the Bass Diffusion Model was successful in prediction of the initial sales of a new durable product. The aim of this thesis is to promote the Bass Diffusion Model, which can forecast the sales of new product, and to provide this model as a source for companies, who are interested in new product, which is not yet applied in Turkey.