Bitcoin ve altın fiyatı: Nedensellik araştırması

After the year 2008 when Bitcoin was proposed to the financial world for the first time, the financial world was in a desperate turmoil facing with the biggest financial crise the world has experienced from the time of Great Depression. There was a general negative reaction to banks which are seen as institutions that have triggered the crise. The confidence to those kind of institutions such as central banks and private monetary institutions such as banks were at all time low. Bitcoin, however was an alternative solution to the traditional financial world with trusted central third party authorities. This newly invented alternative method of payment is composed of a blockchain system which is a peer to peer to network with a decentralized structure. Moreover, the money supply can not be altered in bitcoin ecosystem because there is no central authorities. The purpose of this study is to analyse causal relationship between Bitcoin and Gold, Bitcoin Transaction Volume, Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan.Because gold has Bitcoin characteristics such as limited supply and Bitcoin is popular and widely used in countries such as Japan and China; Gold, Yuan and Yen were chosen as variables.In order to test these relationships Continuous Wavelet Transformation Technique is employed with daily data from 28.04.2013 to 19.10.2018. The results have shown that there is a causal out of phase relationship from bitcoin to Yen and gold from 2014 3rd quarter to 2015 2nd quarter, a causal out of phase relationship from bitcoin to Yuan in 2018 1st and 2nd quarter and an in phase relationship from bitcoin to transaction volume in 2017. Furthermore, according to test results there is also an out of phase relationship from Yen to bitcoin in the period 2015 3rd quarter-2018 1st quarter, an out of phase relationship from gold to bitcoin in 2016 1st quarter-2017 3rd quarter, an in phase relationship from transaction volume to bitcoin in 2016 and finally an out of phase relationship from Yuan to Bitcoin in the year 2017.