Examining the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis on international maritime container transport using complex network analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused profound disruptions in global trade and logistics systems, leading to significant challenges in maritime container transportation, particularly the "empty container crisis." The imbalance in the distribution of empty containers, port closures, and sharp increases in freight rates have confronted the sector with unprecedented difficulties. The impact of the pandemic has highlighted the necessity of reassessing the vital role of maritime container transportation within global supply chains. This study aims to analyze the impact of the pandemic on international maritime container transportation between 2020 and 2021 and, in this context, the structural changes in the network. For this purpose, data from the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development covering the years 2006–2021 have been utilized. Metrics such as density, degree centrality, eigenvector centrality, and betweenness centrality, along with modularity analysis, were employed to understand the dynamics of the network. Fragility analyses were conducted to reveal the critical functions of central nodes within the network. Additionally, the ARIMA method was applied to examine past trends in the network connections and forecast potential future scenarios. The findings indicate that the pandemic has led to significant structural changes in the global container transportation network. The analysis identifies countries such as China, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, France, the United Kingdom, Spain, the United States, Hong Kong, and Italy as central nodes within the network. Disruptions in these countries' functions were found to severely weaken the overall operation of the network. Modularity analysis further revealed that the pandemic reshaped the group structures within the network. Considering that crises arising from various causes in the past have had profound impacts on global trade, and similar crises may recur in the future, it is crucial to implement strategies to mitigate the effects of such events. Increasing port capacities, adopting flexible operational plans, and diversifying supply chains are of paramount importance. Moreover, reducing network centralization and developing alternative maritime routes are proposed as key strategies to enhance the resilience of logistics networks.