The relationship of consumer loans and consumption expenditures in the inflationist environment

The determination of the relationship between consumer loans and the macroeconomic variables that affect them is an important research topic in the economics literature. When the findings obtained from the studies are examined, it is observed that the increases and decreases in the consumer loan volume have various consequences in the economy. In this context, in this study, first of all, the concepts of inflation, consumer loans and expenditures are mentioned and the relationship between consumer loans and consumption expenditures is discussed. Then, in the analysis part, consumer loans as dependent variables for 2005;Q4-2022;Q3 periods in Turkey and interest, inflation, exchange rate and consumption expenditures as independent variables affecting consumer loans were analyzed in the model. The existence of the relationship between consumer loans, consumption expenditures, interest, inflation and real effective exchange rate variables was examined with the Toda-Yamato Causality Test, and according to the results, there is a causal relationship from consumer loans to real effective exchange rate and interest rates, while there is only one causality relationship from consumer price index to consumer loans. It was concluded that there is a one-way causality relationship.