Fast-food marka tercihlerinin Markov Zincirleri ile tahmin edilmesi

Many factors such as living away from families, lack of interest in cooking, time constraints, curiosity, desire to try different tastes, desire to reward themselves and socialize lead students to adopt the habit of eating out. The food choices of the students outside have been fast foods. The characteristics of the places where these foods are consumed are of great importance for students. This situation has led to the phenomenon of making a choice among businesses where food is preferred. There are many factors such as decor, staff attitude, atmosphere, food quality, easy accessibility, service speed, variety in the menu, and the availability of special products in university students' preference for fast food establishments. The aim of this study is to determine the reasons why consumers prefer fast-food brands and to try to predict the future status of the brands. If the future situations of these brands are predicted, various risk factors will be eliminated and the brand will be able to make a profit by turning this situation into an opportunity. In the study, an online questionnaire about fast food brand preferences was applied to 455 students studying at various universities in Turkey. With the data obtained from the surveys, the next fast food brand preferences of university students were estimated by the Markov Chain Analysis method, and the reasons for their preference were examined using the Hidden Markov Model method. In addition, after the brand preferences were estimated, the transition probability matrix was created and the brand loyalty of university students was calculated by calculating the long-term equilibrium vectors. As a result of the analysis of the data, it is seen that the probability of choosing the Burger King brand has the highest rate with 25.9%. It is seen that the probability of choosing the none option is 4.73%. The most preferred brand, Burger King, is respectively 20.64% KFC, 17.61% McDonalds, 13.85% Dominos, 5.54% Popeyes, 3.44% Pizza Hut, 3.38% Sbarro, 3.32%. Arby's is followed by Subway with 0.94% and other brands with 0.64%. It seems that the most effective reason for choosing the Burger King brand is the hygiene option with the highest probability. It is seen that the "Hygiene" status, which is the hidden preference of the Burger King brand, is the underlying reason for the preference of brands such as Popeyes, KFC, Mc Donalds, Dominos, Pizza Hut, Sbarro and Arby's. The fact that the study was carried out during the Covid-19 process brought the hygiene option to the fore. In addition, it is seen that the underlying reason for choosing the Subway brand is "Campaigns" and the hidden situation underlying the preference of other brands is "Food Quality".