İklim değişikliğinin Afrika'da hanehalkı refahına etkisi

In this thesis, we first simulate the impact of climate change on households' welfare in Burkina Faso and Africa. We use the output of a partial equilibrium model, the IMPACT model, to describe climate change's impact on agriculture yield and cropland. This descriptive analysis in chapter I shows that climate change will decline crop yields and increase harvested area. These impacts are later included in the GTAP model, a global static CGE model to analyze climate change's effect on households' welfare. The GTAP simulation outcomes reveal that climate change will lead to a fall in households' wellbeing in Burkina Faso. For instance, It is shown that the total climate change effect on global welfare will decrease by 14% on average due to climate change. Secondly, we examine the African Continental Free Trade Area's role in climate change adaptation in Africa using the GTAP standard model. We define trade liberalization scenarios consisting of removing 90% of trade tariffs among the African regions. The simulation results demonstrate that trade liberalization can generate welfare gain to compensate for climate change welfare loss. For example, the study indicates that trade tariffs removal will result in a 26% increase in global welfare than the level achieved under climate change. However, the welfare gain from trade liberalization will be unequally distributed among countries. Technology progress will be the main welfare driver generated by the AfCFTA. Therefore, to benefit from this new continental free trade area launched in early January 2021, countries should improve technology progress and develop the local industry.