Rusya'da havayolu seyahati talebini belirleyen etkenler: Moskova-İstanbul uçuşları örneği

This study examines the factors affecting air travel demand for Moscow – Istanbul market and presents a comprehensive econometric demand model in which the most significant parameters for air travel demand have been identified. The analysis is build on time series data from January 2014 to December 2018. DOLS and FMOLS regression models are applied to find the cointegration relationship and compare the effect of these variables. The aim is to find out the most critical factors and how they affect the air travel demand and to provide robust air travel demand elasticity estimates. Besides using the standart demand factors like income per capita and price, frequency, crude oil price and PMI index are included in the model. The scholarly contribution of the thesis lies in taking into account the effect of currency crisis and international economic sanctions in Russian Federation between 2014-2018 in estimating the model. Empirical results indicate that ticket price of Turkish Airlines, ticket price of Aeroflot Russian Airlines (a rival company) and per capita income of Russian travellers are the most significant determinants of travel demand. The coefficients of all three determinants are estimated to be elastic, indicating that the Russian travelers are quite sensitive to the changes in prices and income. Moreover, travel demand is affected negatively by seasonal changes. Flight frequency is found to be statistically insignificant in the model.