The effect of selected macroeconomic indicators on the Borsa İstanbul (Bist-100) index

The stock market has been a prominent ingredient of capital markets. In this thesis study, the relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and BIST-100 index was investigated over the period of 2015:1 - 2020:12. Macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, exchange rate, interest, foreign trade, unemployment index, industrial production index, and credit default swap were used as independent variables while the BIST-100 index was the dependent variable of the study. Time Series Analysis and descriptive statistics were utilized to describe and investigate the independent and dependent variable changes over time. ADF–PP unit root tests were run to determine the equilibrium of the series. In addition, multiple regression analysis was used to measure the direction and degree of this relationship between the BIST-100 index and macroeconomic variables. Study findings showed that two macroeconomic variables: inflation, industrial production index, affect the BIST-100 index. It was also identified that there is a positive relationship between the BIST-100 index and inflation, exchange rate, unemployment, and industrial production index, and CDS whereas there is a negative relationship between interest rate and foreign trade and BIST-100 index.