The transparency factor in Turkish foreign policy during the Second World War

Turkey's ability to stay out of the Second World War is one of the most impressive accomplishments in diplomatic history. Pressured for help bythe ?allies? and threatened by the adverseries, Turkey was under constant duress. However Turks escaped from the destruction of the war while receiving credits and supplies from both sides.The consensus is that Turks used their critical geo-political location as a bargaining chip, playing one side against the other. Even though such argument is succesful in many respects, one significant factor deserves more attention. It is the argument of this thesis that transparency (the ability of states to recognize what others are doing) was that factor leaving less room for possible misperceptions and miscalculations.Turkish polity was not faction ridden but stable. Turkish decision makers were few, homogenious, authoritarian and hierarchical bunch. İnönü?s total grip of the country was unchallanged. There was no other centers of power or ideological factions that could be manipulated. Thus Turkish actions and intentions were easier to analyse by foreigners. Turkish polity was transparent.Turkish decision makers also made efforts to be transparent. They affectively comminicated. In addition to official contacts, Turks used strickly controlled media to expose their intentions. During their manevours, they tried to reduce perception of surprize. They were carefull limiting their commitments and took precautions against upsetting any interested powers. At many turning points, Turkish manevours were well expected by their counterparts thus miscalculations and overreactions were prevented.The transparent structure also helped. The decisive victory of Germany in Western Europe or inadequacy of Turkish military capabilities did not leave room for miscalculation. The Turks were also able to read interantional structure correctly. The Impossibility of Balkan solidarity and Soviet intentions were correctly calculated by Turks.Having benign and transparent intentions does not avoid war. If thought to be essential, Turkey could have been attacked by Germany, Russia or even by England. If Turkey did not have an extremely important geopolitical position she could have easily been a bargaining chip that could be sacrificed. Had Turkey not managed to put together a large army or did not have a difficult and costly terrain to invade the outcome could have been very much different. The argument of this thesis does not deny that structural factors are the prime determinants. However reducing the likelyhood of miscalculation, transparency played a major part in the outcome of Turkish Foreign Policy during the Second World War.