Intractable conflicts and logic of attack: ungoverned spaces in Somalia and implication on national and regional security

The situation in Somalia has over the last three decades transformed rapidly from a domestic conflict into a regional security crisis characterized by terrorism, cross border kidnappings, human trafficking, piracy, migration and assassinations. While there is growing concern over the conflict's impact on the region, the humanitarian situation in the country which has seen the death of over half a million people and millions others displaced often overshadow academic research conducted in the region and preoccupy efforts of peace ambassadors. This thesis aims to examine how and why the situation in Somalia affects domestic and regional security in the Horn of Africa. The study adopts a qualitative study approach by interrogating official government reports, academic and media publications as well as documents from non -governmental organizations. It uses information from various conflict reporting databases to analyze the trend and actors involved in attacks within Somalia and the region. The thesis consists of six chapters, it begins by examining the Somalian conflict within the context of complexity and ungoverned space theories. In this chapter the methodology adopted in the study is also discussed in detail. The second chapter examines the clan configuration among Somali communities and the origins of 'soft -bond' networks which have shaped the nature of the conflict. The third chapter of the thesis explores the colonial and historical origins of instabilities in Somalia as well as the history of peace efforts and why they failed. In chapter four, I asses the complexity of the conflict in Somalia and discuss the logic of attack and the transformation of the conflict over the years. Chapter five discusses the implications of the Somalian conflict on national and regional security, while chapter six which is also the findings section discusses the nexus between the Somalian conflict and the socio -economic, political and cohesion aspects of the society. The study argues that the impact of the situation in Somalia on the region is aggravated by three issues often overlooked. One is the emergence of ungoverned spaces in the country that allows criminal groups to recruit, train and carry attacks within and outside the country. Second is the transformation of the conflict itself from a civil war into organized crime making the situation intractable. This has not only continued to pose serious security threats to Somalia and her neighboring countries but also undermined peace efforts as perpetuators of these criminal activities continue to benefit from the instability in the country. The third element that has made the conflict adopt a regional dimension is the perception of the involvement by regional countries in the crisis which continues to influence the logic of attack in the country. The study identifies these three issues as critical barriers to peace in the Horn of Africa.