Analysis of import from Turkey to Iraq and Northern Iraq region

Iraq's and Northern Iraq Regions (NIR) local needs of goods and services depend on imports from international markets, and between all neighbors, Turkey is the biggest trade partner for both Iraq and NIR. However, the ratio of imports from Turkey is different in the NIR region. The purpose of this thesis study is to analyze the factors affecting import from Turkey to Iraq and NIR during the period 2004 to 2017. For this purpose, appropriate econometric models are used for time series analysis. The use of time series requires stationarity and when the structural breaks are considered, the time series are found to be stationary around the trend. The theoretical variables Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rate and population that can affect imports are used in the models, and only GDP was found to be statistically significant. In addition, Johansen cointegration results could not obtained. All of these unexpected results are due to the small number of observations.