Çapa şimdi nerede? Ak Parti dönemi Türk dış politikasinin polihöristik analizi

This thesis analyzes Turkish foreign policy in the AKP (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi- Justice and Development Party) era. It summarizes the post-Cold War Turkish foreign policy literature and proposes a formal model of the AKP leaders? decision-making process. The thesis asks one methodological and one empirical question. The methodological question aims at proposing a formal and holistic model integrating multi-level and multi-dimensional variables to explain the shifting foreign policy orientations of Turkey in the post-Cold War era. The application of Poliheuristic (PH) decision-making Theory is proposed as an answer to this question. The empirical question aims at explaining the major factors that determined the foreign policy orientation and re-orientation of Turkey in the AKP period. The thesis argues that, among others, the prospect of EU membership; the impact of Ahmet Davutoğlu and his arguments on Turkey?s ?strategic depth?; the domestic political conditions of the period; and the political background of the AKP have been the major determinants of these shifting foreign policy orientations.Keywords: Formal modeling, Turkish foreign policy, Decision-Making, Poliheuristic Theory, the AKP