An examination of the relationship between exchange rate and gold and stock within the framework of Fragile decimated countries
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Abstract (EN)
In this study, the relationship between exchange rate, (USD/TL, USD/ARS, USD/PKR, USD/EGP, USD/QAR) gold prices (XAU/TRY, XAU/ARS, XAU/PKR, XAU/EGP, XAU/QAR) and selected stock index prices (BİST 100, S&P MERVAL, KARACHİ100, EGX30, DOHA QSI) were examined within the scope of Fragile Five countries (Turkey, Argentina, Pakistan, Egypt, Qatar) determined by Standard and Poor's in 2017. Futhermore, whether there is a long-term relationship between the US dollar exchange rate and spot gold prices of KB countries and stock index prices was tested with the Johansen Cointegration and (ARDL)-Bounds Cointegration test, and the existence of a short-term relationship was analyzed with Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Finally, the direction of the relationships revealed were determined by the Toda-Yamamoto Causality test. Keywords: Fragile Five, Exchange Rate, Gold, Stock Index, Johansen Cointegration, (ARDL)-Bounds Cointegration Test, Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test
Author
Osman Esmer
Institution
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Osman Esmer (Master Thesis). An examination of the relationship between exchange rate and gold and stock within the framework of Fragile decimated countries, 2022, Dokuz Eylül University.
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