The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on Turkey's imports from Azerbaijan

In this study, the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on Turkey's imports from Azerbaijan is examined. In the framework of the analysis, data of Azerbaijan and Turkey for the period between 2010:1 and 2020:11 was used. First, unit root tests were performed in the study, and then the GARCH (1,1) model was used to estimate the exchange rate uncertainty. In the next stage, to test whether there is a cointegration relationship in the long term, the ARDL boundary test was conducted. The conclusion from this test showed a negative and meaningless relationship on the uncertainty of exchange rate and imports from Azerbaijan to Turkey. Then, by applying the error correction model, short-term dynamic analysis was performed between the series and it is stated that the deviations that will occur in the short term will be eliminated in the next period.