Jobless Growth: The case of Turkey

The aim of this study is to examine the occurrence of economic growth and increase in the unemployment rate in Turkish economy during 2000s. Growth, employment and unemployment in Turkish economy and also in the World economy were evaluated analytically with the help of graphs and tables. The presence of jobless growth in Turkish economy for the period of 2006:Q1 to 2018:Q4 were analyzed using GDP and unemployment rates with the help of the cointegration analysis. In the first part of the study, economic growth, employment and employment types, unemployment and unemployment types were studied. In the second part, growth models, employment theories and Okun Law were presented. Later, economic growth and unemployment rates in Turkey and in the world economy have been presented with the help of graphs and tables. Empirical studies conducted earlier on the topic were also included. The third chapter was started by examining the unit roots of the series used in our application for the Turkish economy. ADF and PP tests were performed to investigate whether the series were stationary or not. Tests showed us that the series were stationary at the first differences I(1). Then, the cointegration analysis was performed using Johansen Methods and it was determined that the series were cointegrated. It showed a long-term equilibrium relationship between these series. Finally, Effect Response and Variance Decomposition Analyzes were performed. As a result of Effect Response Analysis; the response of unemployment to unemployment is positive in decreasing proportions. In the effect of unemployment on LRGDP, the negative effects of the first 2 periods increase and then decrease gradually and the effect is negative for 10 periods. The effect of LRGDP on LRGDP is positive for 10 periods. As a result of Variance Decomposition; a change in unemployment is due to the shocks that come to it at the highest rates. LRGSYİH, on the other hand, while the effect of unemployment in the first period of change is 18 percent, this effect increase up to the third period and increases up to 30 percent.