The role of renewable energy in Turkeys' energy import dependence: ARDL bounds testing approach

Dependence on energy imports poses serious problems in the countrys' economies. According to 2018 data published by EUROSTAT, Turkey is dependent external on energy with 73.79 percent energy import dependency rate. This situation brought the risk of energy supply security to the agenda for Turkey. In the European Union, this figure stands at 60 percent. Both Turkey's high energy import dependency ratio and the deficiencies in fossil energy sources and nuclear energy were effective in conducting this study for Turkey. Turkey has high potential in terms of renewable energy sources. On the other hand, as a result of the analysis of this study conducted for Turkey, it was determined that one percent increase in renewable energy reduces energy import dependence by 0.26 percent. Accordingly, it is believed that external dependence on energy in Turkey will be reduced by investing in renewable energy sources at a high level. In this study, the effect of renewable energy on energy import dependence in Turkey for the period 1990-2018 was analyzed using the ARDL bounds testing approach, a time series co-integration test. The ARDL bounds testing approach allows you to work with both l(0) and l(1) data and gives more reliable results in small samples. Because of this, the ARDL bounds testing approach was preferred in this study. When the analysis results were examined, it was determined that renewable electricity production in Turkey had a statistically significant and negative effect on energy import dependence. It has been concluded that GDP per capita affects energy import dependence statistically significantly and positively. It was determined that urban population growth had a statistically significant and positive effect on energy import dependence. While natural gas prices had a statistically significant and positive effect on energy import dependence, crude oil prices were not statistically significant. It has been determined that renewable electricity generation in Turkey reduces energy import dependence, on the other hand, the most important determinant of energy import dependence in Turkey is GDP per capita.