The impact of on GDP of forei̇gn trade of low medi̇um and hi̇gh technology sectors: The case of Turkey

This thesis is conducted to examine the effects on GDP in Turkey of low, medium, and high technology sector foreign trade. In the study the long run relationship between GDP and export-import ratios of low, middle-low, middle-high and high technology sectors is analyzed by using cointegration approach in period of 1996Q1 to 2013Q1. In order to test of existing of relationship among variables firstly ADF and PP unit root tests are applied and then ARDL bounded test is used to determine long and short run relations. After finding the relationships among the variables Granger causality test is applied. As a result of ARDL model it was concluded that there existed long run relationships among variables and GDP. According to ARDL long run results, it is concluded that the variables other than high technology are significant and negative. Although high technology variable has positive effects on GDP, it could not find statistically significant. In Error Correction Model, approximately 24% of short term deviation among the variables is corrected each period. In the result of Granger causality test which is used to determine direction of relationships among the variables, strong evidences that there exist two-way relation between high technology variable and GDP were founded. The relationship between GDP and other variables could not be found. The direction of relationship is from high technology sector to GDP in short run and from GDP to high technology sector in long run.