The analysis of import and export quantities between the Near and Middle East countries which are affected from the Arab Spring and Turkey with ARIMA models

The Near and Middle East have an important place on earth in terms of their geographical position and having wealthy resources.In December, 2010 different protest and demonstrations were organized in the region with the civil commotions which had started in Tunis, spreading to the Near and Middle East countries at short notice. This period called "The Arab Spring", affected the countries in the region and economics of the countries which have powerful business relations in different aspects.In recent years, Turkey has strengthened its business relations, by expanding its foreign trade system with these countries, as well.Therefore, the reflection of experiences to the economics of our country will come up as a spontaneous outcome of the process. Forecasts, which are the indicators of economic growth and have been acquired with the models that are set up for the measures of imports and exports help the countries arrange coming period budget programmes.The budget programmes which are prepared with the correct forecasts minimise the risk of loss by keeping the incomes and expenses under control.In the analysis of time series, an appropriate model for the series is assigned in the light of former amounts of the variable and with the help of assigned model, a forecast is made for the future.The forecasts can be made in terms of different variables of different fields, such as administration or national economy.Sales figures, quantity of the product, unemployment rate, quantity of the imports and exports can be given as examples for these variables. The purpose of these researches is to see how the political and economic crises in the Near and Middle East reflected on Turkey's imports and exports.With the help of built models, forecastings are made and how the foreign trade with these countries resulted under similar crisis conditions is tried to be analyzed.For this purpose, in the light of the data acquired from Turkish Statistical Institute between the time period of 01.1996-10.2014, appropriate ARIMA models areset for the quantity of imports and exports between Turkey and the Near and Middle East countries which are affected from the Arab Spring and forecasts are made for the next eight months. Keywords: Time Series, ARIMA Models, Foreign Trade, Forecasting.