Türkiyede bölgesel tüketim ve gelir dinamikleri: Panel veri analizi

Examining regional consumption and income dynamics has become increasingly important in recent years. Regional income and consumption disparities are used to create regional economic policies because the reduction of these disparities is a crucial step for economic development. The rapid progress of the scientific and technological developments in communication technologies and the promotion of the air, land and marine transportation in recent years have increased the interactions among households at the regional level. Thus, the differences in consumption and income among households have been changing. This thesis thus aims to test whether there are any differences in consumption and income among the 26 NUTS-2 regions in Turkey, then to identify the determinants of the differences and finally to examine the direction in which these differences evolve over time. For this purpose, demand elasticities are estimated at the regional level for each group of goods and service, then regional convergence analyzes is tested. The price and income elasticities for 12 groups of goods and service for 26 NUTS-2 level regions covering the period 2005-2013 are estimated using the Almost Ideal Demand Model(Deaton & Muellbauer, 1980) in the linear form. Elasticities are obtained for the expenditures on food, alcohol, clothing, shelter, furniture, health, transportation, communication, recreation, education, restaurant and other goods and service using geographically weighted panel regression (Bruna & Yu, 2013; Yu, 2010) technique. The technique considers both time dependence (effect) and spatial dependence and is superior to other traditional regressions because it takes into account spatial autocorrelation, spatial heterogeneity, and individual heterogeneity. Our findings show that the income elasticity of demand is inelastic for shelter expenditure, whereas transportation expenditure, furniture expenditure and health expenditure are quite elastic. The elasticities of food expenditure, clothing expenditure and communication expenditure differ between the east and the west of the country. Alcohol expenditure, restaurant expenditure, and recreation expenditure also vary from region to region. It should be noted, however, that elasticities of food expenditure, clothing expenditure and communication expenditure do not show a systematic pattern. Counterintuitively, the elasticity of education expenditure does not also show a systematic pattern among the regions. The price elasticity of demand is similar for all regions in terms of shelter expenditure, furniture expenditure and health expenditure. The elasticities of all other remaining expenditures show significant differences among all regions. The price elasticities of food and clothing expenditure vary systematically between the eastern and western regions as income elasticities. However, the price elasticity of alcohol expenditure, recreation expenditure and restaurant expenditure do not differ systematically across all regions. Contrary to expectations, the price elasticities of education expenditure, health expenditure, transportation expenditure and communication expenditure differ significantly among all regions. The convergence in the expenditures on food, alcohol, clothing, shelter, furniture, health, transportation, communication, recreation, education, restaurant and other goods and service as well as income is tested using four different approaches. Firstly, the convergence of the 12 goods and service groups and income for 26 NUTS-2 level regions is tested by employing spatial dynamic panel regression model approach(Lee & Yu, 2010) and the dynamic panel quantile regression model(Galvao, 2011) based on the Neoclassical growth model(R. J. Barro & Sala-i-Martin, 2004). Then the presence of convergence clubs is examined by using the convergence clubs approach(Hobijn & Franses, 2000) applying the unit root test and clustering algorithms. Finally, convergence is tested by the distribution approach (Quah, 1996) based on the kernel density functions. Our findings from these four convergence analyzes present that the differences in terms of food expenditure, clothing expenditure and health expenditure, which have low income and price elasticities and high share in budget, are gradually decreasing among all of the regions. However, neither convergence nor divergence are not found in furniture expenditure, shelter expenditure, recreation expenditure, restaurant expenditure and education expenditure, which have partly high income and price elasticities.